99
81.31%
Wins 80.96%, ties 0.71%
44
18.69%
Wins 18.33%, ties 0.71%
99 against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 80.956 | 0.712 | 18.332 | 81.312 |
| 44 | 18.332 | 0.712 | 80.956 | 18.688 |
99 and 44 are both pocket pairs. Both hands are pairs, so the bigger pair is ahead on every board that does not pair a card below it.
A gap this wide means 44 is in trouble before the flop and has few good runouts. Split pots make up 0.71% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, 99 is number 6 of the 169 starting hands and 44 is number 48.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 49,904,000 | 439,000 | 11,300,000 |
| 44 | 11,300,000 | 439,000 | 49,904,000 |
The total is exact: 36 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 4.351 | 1.235 | 5.455 | 0.230 |
| 44 | 0.230 | 5.455 | 1.235 | 4.351 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
99 prefers paired flops, where it holds 86.28%, and likes low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) least, where it holds 72.17%. 99 stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | 44 wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 82.409 | 0.411 | 17.180 | 82.614 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 71.741 | 0.863 | 27.396 | 72.172 |
| Two-tone | 46.363 | 80.078 | 0.471 | 19.451 | 80.314 |
| Monotone | 5.152 | 74.740 | 2.125 | 23.135 | 75.802 |
| Paired | 17.576 | 85.612 | 1.334 | 13.054 | 86.279 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts 99 from 72.06% by +9.25 points and 44 from 57.02% by -38.33 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 81.312 | 72.057 | +9.255 | 1.12844 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 82.614 | 72.057 | +10.557 | 1.14651 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 72.172 | 72.057 | +0.115 | 1.00160 |
| 99, two-tone | 80.314 | 72.057 | +8.257 | 1.11459 |
| 99, monotone | 75.802 | 72.057 | +3.745 | 1.05197 |
| 99, paired | 86.279 | 72.057 | +14.222 | 1.19737 |
| 44, all flops | 18.688 | 57.023 | -38.335 | 0.32773 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 17.386 | 57.023 | -39.637 | 0.30489 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 27.828 | 57.023 | -29.195 | 0.48801 |
| 44, two-tone | 19.686 | 57.023 | -37.337 | 0.34523 |
| 44, monotone | 24.198 | 57.023 | -32.825 | 0.42436 |
| 44, paired | 13.721 | 57.023 | -43.302 | 0.24062 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, 99 has 81.45%; looking only at deals where they do not, 80.64%. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 0.81 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | 44 wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 30 | 83.33 | 81.083 | 0.726 | 18.191 | 81.446 |
| No shared suit | 6 | 16.67 | 80.319 | 0.645 | 19.036 | 80.642 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, 99 against 44 appears in 36 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0022%), and in 72 when the seats are swapped too (0.0044%).
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: 99 averages $162.62 back, ahead of its $100 by $62.62, while 44 averages $37.38, short of its $100 by $62.62.
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 810 won outright by 99, about 183 won outright by 44 and about 7 split.
The same matchup from the other side
The mirror image, 44 against 99, is 18.69% to 81.31%, and its address redirects to this page.
Keep exploring
9s9h against 4d4c is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
Method: exact enumeration. The 36 specific deals are grouped by suit pattern, each is run against all 1,712,304 boards, and both seven-card hands are scored. Equity adds half of every tie, and flop textures are tallied over the ten flops inside each board.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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