99
79.31%
Wins 78.96%, ties 0.70%
53s
20.69%
Wins 20.34%, ties 0.70%
99 against 53s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 78.958 | 0.703 | 20.339 | 79.310 |
| 53s | 20.339 | 0.703 | 78.958 | 20.690 |
One side is a pocket pair, the other is a suited hand. Here a pair faces two cards that are both smaller, so the other hand needs to pair up and still be behind.
99 is well ahead, and 53s needs a specific kind of board to catch up. 0.70% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, 99 is number 6 of the 169 starting hands and 53s is number 146.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 32,448,000 | 289,000 | 8,358,000 |
| 53s | 8,358,000 | 289,000 | 32,448,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 3.833 | 1.266 | 4.917 | 0.261 |
| 53s | 0.261 | 4.917 | 1.266 | 3.833 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, 99 peaks at 83.45% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and bottoms out at 68.56% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). 99 stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | 53s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 83.255 | 0.398 | 16.347 | 83.454 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 68.138 | 0.837 | 31.025 | 68.557 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 77.292 | 0.443 | 22.265 | 77.514 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 72.750 | 2.580 | 24.670 | 74.040 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 82.056 | 1.250 | 16.694 | 82.681 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, 99 changes by +7.25 points (baseline 72.06%) and 53s by -19.00 points (baseline 39.69%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 79.310 | 72.057 | +7.253 | 1.10066 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 83.454 | 72.057 | +11.397 | 1.15817 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 68.557 | 72.057 | -3.500 | 0.95143 |
| 99, two-tone | 77.514 | 72.057 | +5.457 | 1.07573 |
| 99, monotone | 74.040 | 72.057 | +1.983 | 1.02752 |
| 99, paired | 82.681 | 72.057 | +10.624 | 1.14744 |
| 53s, all flops | 20.690 | 39.693 | -19.003 | 0.52125 |
| 53s, rainbow, ten or higher | 16.546 | 39.693 | -23.147 | 0.41685 |
| 53s, rainbow, nine or lower | 31.443 | 39.693 | -8.250 | 0.79215 |
| 53s, two-tone | 22.486 | 39.693 | -17.207 | 0.56650 |
| 53s, monotone | 25.960 | 39.693 | -13.733 | 0.65402 |
| 53s, paired | 17.319 | 39.693 | -22.374 | 0.43632 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 79.89% for 99 with a shared suit and 78.73% without one. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 1.16 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | 53s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 79.515 | 0.745 | 19.740 | 79.888 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 78.402 | 0.660 | 20.938 | 78.732 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 24 are 99 in one seat and 53s in the other (0.0015%); with the seats swapped too, 48 (0.0030%).
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, 99's average share is $158.62 (a gain of $58.62) and 53s' is $41.38 (a loss of $58.62).
Run 1,000 deals and the tally comes out near 790 for 99, 203 for 53s and 7 ties.
The same matchup from the other side
53s versus 99 is this same page seen from the other hand: 20.69% for 53s, 79.31% for 99.
Keep exploring
9s9h against 5d3d is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
Method: exact enumeration. The 24 specific deals are grouped by suit pattern, each is run against all 1,712,304 boards, and both seven-card hands are scored. Equity adds half of every tie, and flop textures are tallied over the ten flops inside each board.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session