99
79.65%
Wins 79.32%, ties 0.66%
64s
20.35%
Wins 20.02%, ties 0.66%
99 against 64s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 79.322 | 0.663 | 20.015 | 79.653 |
| 64s | 20.015 | 0.663 | 79.322 | 20.347 |
99 is a pocket pair and 64s is a suited hand. Here a pair faces two cards that are both smaller, so the other hand needs to pair up and still be behind.
99 is the clear favorite, though 64s gets there on roughly one board in 5. 0.66% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
For context, 99 sits at number 6 of 169 starting hands and 64s at number 138 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 32,598,000 | 272,000 | 8,225,000 |
| 64s | 8,225,000 | 272,000 | 32,598,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 3.915 | 1.261 | 4.996 | 0.255 |
| 64s | 0.255 | 4.996 | 1.261 | 3.915 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, 99's equity runs from 66.55% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) up to 84.35% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. 99 stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | 64s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 84.167 | 0.364 | 15.469 | 84.349 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 66.190 | 0.725 | 33.085 | 66.552 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 77.708 | 0.398 | 21.894 | 77.907 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 73.059 | 2.508 | 24.433 | 74.313 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 82.150 | 1.250 | 16.600 | 82.775 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 72.06% for 99, 41.33% for 64s. Here the change is +7.59 and -20.98 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 79.653 | 72.057 | +7.596 | 1.10542 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 84.349 | 72.057 | +12.292 | 1.17059 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 66.552 | 72.057 | -5.505 | 0.92360 |
| 99, two-tone | 77.907 | 72.057 | +5.850 | 1.08119 |
| 99, monotone | 74.313 | 72.057 | +2.256 | 1.03131 |
| 99, paired | 82.775 | 72.057 | +10.718 | 1.14874 |
| 64s, all flops | 20.347 | 41.333 | -20.986 | 0.49227 |
| 64s, rainbow, ten or higher | 15.651 | 41.333 | -25.682 | 0.37866 |
| 64s, rainbow, nine or lower | 33.448 | 41.333 | -7.885 | 0.80923 |
| 64s, two-tone | 22.093 | 41.333 | -19.240 | 0.53451 |
| 64s, monotone | 25.687 | 41.333 | -15.646 | 0.62146 |
| 64s, paired | 17.225 | 41.333 | -24.108 | 0.41674 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 80.24% for 99 with a shared suit and 79.07% without one. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 1.17 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | 64s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 79.883 | 0.707 | 19.410 | 80.236 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 78.760 | 0.620 | 20.620 | 79.070 |
How often this matchup comes up
The class pair covers 24 combinations of specific cards in a fixed seat order, 0.0015% of 1,624,350, and 48 (0.0030%) in either order.
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 99's equity of 79.65% is worth $159.30, a $59.30 edge, and 64s' 20.35% is worth $40.70, which is $59.30 under its stake.
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 793 won outright by 99, about 200 won outright by 64s and about 7 split.
The same matchup from the other side
Swap the hands and you get 64s with 20.35% against 99 with 79.65%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 9s9h against 6d4d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
Method: exact enumeration. The 24 specific deals are grouped by suit pattern, each is run against all 1,712,304 boards, and both seven-card hands are scored. Equity adds half of every tie, and flop textures are tallied over the ten flops inside each board.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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