99
55.46%
Wins 55.27%, ties 0.38%
AJo
44.54%
Wins 44.35%, ties 0.38%
99 against AJo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 55.269 | 0.378 | 44.353 | 55.458 |
| AJo | 44.353 | 0.378 | 55.269 | 44.542 |
We compare a pocket pair with an offsuit hand. This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
A 10.92 point lead is real, and AJo still takes about 443 of every 1,000 deals outright. A split pot comes up on 0.38% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
By strength against a random hand, 99 holds place 6 of 169 and AJo holds place 15.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 68,139,000 | 466,000 | 54,681,000 |
| AJo | 54,681,000 | 466,000 | 68,139,000 |
The board total is exact, 72 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.245 | 1.809 | 2.255 | 0.803 |
| AJo | 0.803 | 2.255 | 1.809 | 1.245 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and 99 is strongest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (79.38%) and weakest on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better (48.34%). The lead reverses on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better: there AJo is the favorite even though 99 is ahead overall.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | AJo wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.717 | 48.264 | 0.157 | 51.579 | 48.342 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 78.877 | 1.008 | 20.115 | 79.381 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 54.161 | 0.317 | 45.522 | 54.319 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 50.876 | 1.702 | 47.422 | 51.727 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 60.938 | 0.236 | 38.826 | 61.056 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, 99 changes by -16.60 points (baseline 72.06%) and AJo by -19.02 points (baseline 63.56%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 55.458 | 72.057 | -16.599 | 0.76964 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.342 | 72.057 | -23.715 | 0.67089 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 79.381 | 72.057 | +7.324 | 1.10164 |
| 99, two-tone | 54.319 | 72.057 | -17.738 | 0.75383 |
| 99, monotone | 51.727 | 72.057 | -20.330 | 0.71786 |
| 99, paired | 61.056 | 72.057 | -11.001 | 0.84733 |
| AJo, all flops | 44.542 | 63.563 | -19.021 | 0.70075 |
| AJo, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.658 | 63.563 | -11.905 | 0.81271 |
| AJo, rainbow, nine or lower | 20.619 | 63.563 | -42.944 | 0.32439 |
| AJo, two-tone | 45.681 | 63.563 | -17.882 | 0.71867 |
| AJo, monotone | 48.273 | 63.563 | -15.290 | 0.75945 |
| AJo, paired | 38.944 | 63.563 | -24.619 | 0.61268 |
Does a shared suit matter?
When the hands share a suit, 99 holds 55.38%; when they do not, it holds 55.87%. 99 does better with no shared suit, by 0.49 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | AJo wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 55.179 | 0.394 | 44.427 | 55.376 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 55.721 | 0.298 | 43.981 | 55.870 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0089% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 144 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: 99 averages $110.92 back, ahead of its $100 by $10.92, while AJo averages $89.08, short of its $100 by $10.92.
A thousand deals look like this: 99 takes 553, AJo takes 443, 4 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for AJo against 99, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 44.54% and 55.46%.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in 9s9h against AdJc, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
The page is built from a full enumeration: 1,712,304 boards, every suit pattern of the 72 specific deals, both seven-card hands evaluated. A tie is worth half a win to each hand, and a board is tallied under each of its ten possible flops for the texture rows.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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