99
52.58%
Wins 52.37%, ties 0.41%
AKs
47.42%
Wins 47.22%, ties 0.41%
99 against AKs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 52.373 | 0.410 | 47.217 | 52.578 |
| AKs | 47.217 | 0.410 | 52.373 | 47.422 |
Here a pocket pair (99) meets a suited hand (AKs). This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
With only 5.16 points between them, the board decides this matchup far more than the cards in hand. Of every 100 boards, about 0.41 are split pots, and the equity figures already include them.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, 99 is number 6 of the 169 starting hands and AKs is number 8.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 21,523,000 | 168,000 | 19,404,000 |
| AKs | 19,404,000 | 168,000 | 21,523,000 |
The board total is exact, 24 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.109 | 1.909 | 2.118 | 0.902 |
| AKs | 0.902 | 2.118 | 1.909 | 1.109 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, 99's equity runs from 46.52% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better up to 77.04% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AKs is ahead on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, even though it trails 99 when every flop is counted.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | AKs wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 46.447 | 0.154 | 53.399 | 46.524 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 76.517 | 1.037 | 22.446 | 77.036 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 50.338 | 0.305 | 49.357 | 50.490 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 50.357 | 2.393 | 47.250 | 51.553 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 58.060 | 0.228 | 41.712 | 58.174 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
How much does the opponent matter? Compared with its random-hand 72.06%, 99 changes by -19.48 points, and AKs, from 67.05%, by -19.63.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 52.578 | 72.057 | -19.479 | 0.72967 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 46.524 | 72.057 | -25.533 | 0.64566 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 77.036 | 72.057 | +4.979 | 1.06910 |
| 99, two-tone | 50.490 | 72.057 | -21.567 | 0.70070 |
| 99, monotone | 51.553 | 72.057 | -20.504 | 0.71545 |
| 99, paired | 58.174 | 72.057 | -13.883 | 0.80733 |
| AKs, all flops | 47.422 | 67.045 | -19.623 | 0.70732 |
| AKs, rainbow, ten or higher | 53.476 | 67.045 | -13.569 | 0.79761 |
| AKs, rainbow, nine or lower | 22.964 | 67.045 | -44.081 | 0.34252 |
| AKs, two-tone | 49.510 | 67.045 | -17.535 | 0.73846 |
| AKs, monotone | 48.447 | 67.045 | -18.598 | 0.72260 |
| AKs, paired | 41.826 | 67.045 | -25.219 | 0.62385 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common 99 has 52.76% equity, and with none in common it has 52.39%. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 0.37 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | AKs wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.537 | 0.454 | 47.009 | 52.764 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.209 | 0.366 | 47.425 | 52.392 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0030% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 48 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $105.16 for 99 and $94.84 for AKs; the first side gains $5.16 per all-in and the second gives up $5.16.
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 524 wins for 99, 472 for AKs and 4 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
AKs against 99 adds nothing new: it is 47.42% for AKs and 52.58% for 99, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
9s9h against AdKd is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 24 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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