99
52.70%
Wins 52.50%, ties 0.41%
AQs
47.30%
Wins 47.09%, ties 0.41%
99 against AQs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 52.495 | 0.405 | 47.100 | 52.697 |
| AQs | 47.100 | 0.405 | 52.495 | 47.303 |
Here a pocket pair (99) meets a suited hand (AQs). One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
With only 5.40 points between them, the board decides this matchup far more than the cards in hand. The tie share is 0.41%: on those boards the pot is chopped and neither hand wins outright.
Among the 169 starting hands, 99 is number 6 and AQs is number 10 by strength against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 21,573,000 | 166,000 | 19,356,000 |
| AQs | 19,356,000 | 166,000 | 21,573,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.114 | 1.905 | 2.123 | 0.898 |
| AQs | 0.898 | 2.123 | 1.905 | 1.114 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, 99's equity runs from 46.71% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better up to 76.94% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AQs takes over on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, so the favorite before the flop is the underdog on those boards.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | AQs wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 46.633 | 0.148 | 53.219 | 46.707 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 76.432 | 1.021 | 22.547 | 76.943 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 50.465 | 0.299 | 49.236 | 50.614 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 50.443 | 2.390 | 47.167 | 51.638 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 58.161 | 0.233 | 41.606 | 58.278 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 72.06% for 99, 66.21% for AQs. Here the change is -19.36 and -18.91 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 52.697 | 72.057 | -19.360 | 0.73132 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 46.707 | 72.057 | -25.350 | 0.64820 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 76.943 | 72.057 | +4.886 | 1.06781 |
| 99, two-tone | 50.614 | 72.057 | -21.443 | 0.70242 |
| 99, monotone | 51.638 | 72.057 | -20.419 | 0.71663 |
| 99, paired | 58.278 | 72.057 | -13.779 | 0.80878 |
| AQs, all flops | 47.303 | 66.209 | -18.906 | 0.71445 |
| AQs, rainbow, ten or higher | 53.293 | 66.209 | -12.916 | 0.80492 |
| AQs, rainbow, nine or lower | 23.057 | 66.209 | -43.152 | 0.34825 |
| AQs, two-tone | 49.386 | 66.209 | -16.823 | 0.74591 |
| AQs, monotone | 48.362 | 66.209 | -17.847 | 0.73044 |
| AQs, paired | 41.722 | 66.209 | -24.487 | 0.63016 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Of the deals of this matchup, 12 share a suit (99 at 52.88%) and 12 do not (52.52%). 99 does better with a shared suit, by 0.36 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | AQs wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.652 | 0.448 | 46.900 | 52.876 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.337 | 0.362 | 47.301 | 52.518 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 24 specific-card matchups (0.0015% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 48 once you count the seats both ways (0.0030%).
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: 99 averages $105.40 back, ahead of its $100 by $5.40, while AQs averages $94.60, short of its $100 by $5.40.
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 525 won outright by 99, about 471 won outright by AQs and about 4 split.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for AQs against 99, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 47.30% and 52.70%.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in 9s9h against AdQd, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 24 specific 99 against AQs deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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