88
52.60%
Wins 52.40%, ties 0.39%
AQs
47.40%
Wins 47.21%, ties 0.39%
88 against AQs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 52.399 | 0.392 | 47.209 | 52.595 |
| AQs | 47.209 | 0.392 | 52.399 | 47.405 |
One side is a pocket pair, the other is a suited hand. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
With only 5.20 points between them, the board decides this matchup far more than the cards in hand. About 0.39% of boards chop the pot, which is why equity sits slightly above the win figure for both hands.
By strength against a random hand, 88 holds place 7 of 169 and AQs holds place 10.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 21,534,000 | 161,000 | 19,401,000 |
| AQs | 19,401,000 | 161,000 | 21,534,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 1.109 | 1.908 | 2.118 | 0.901 |
| AQs | 0.901 | 2.118 | 1.908 | 1.109 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) are the best for 88 (77.24%); rainbow flops topped by a ten or better are the worst (46.66%). 88 is the favorite overall but falls behind on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better.
| Flop | Share of flops | 88 wins | Ties | AQs wins | 88 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 46.590 | 0.148 | 53.262 | 46.664 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 76.815 | 0.851 | 22.334 | 77.240 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 50.502 | 0.269 | 49.229 | 50.637 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 50.464 | 2.378 | 47.158 | 51.653 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 57.423 | 0.305 | 42.272 | 57.575 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 69.16% for 88, 66.21% for AQs. Here the change is -16.56 and -18.81 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88, all flops | 52.595 | 69.163 | -16.568 | 0.76045 |
| 88, rainbow, ten or higher | 46.664 | 69.163 | -22.499 | 0.67470 |
| 88, rainbow, nine or lower | 77.240 | 69.163 | +8.077 | 1.11678 |
| 88, two-tone | 50.637 | 69.163 | -18.526 | 0.73214 |
| 88, monotone | 51.653 | 69.163 | -17.510 | 0.74683 |
| 88, paired | 57.575 | 69.163 | -11.588 | 0.83245 |
| AQs, all flops | 47.405 | 66.209 | -18.804 | 0.71599 |
| AQs, rainbow, ten or higher | 53.336 | 66.209 | -12.873 | 0.80557 |
| AQs, rainbow, nine or lower | 22.760 | 66.209 | -43.449 | 0.34376 |
| AQs, two-tone | 49.363 | 66.209 | -16.846 | 0.74556 |
| AQs, monotone | 48.347 | 66.209 | -17.862 | 0.73022 |
| AQs, paired | 42.425 | 66.209 | -23.784 | 0.64077 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Does suit overlap move the numbers? 88 has 52.78% when the hands share a suit and 52.41% when they do not. 88 does better with a shared suit, by 0.37 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 88 wins | Ties | AQs wins | 88 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.558 | 0.436 | 47.006 | 52.776 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.240 | 0.348 | 47.412 | 52.414 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0030% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 48 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: 88 averages $105.20 back, ahead of its $100 by $5.20, while AQs averages $94.80, short of its $100 by $5.20.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 524 outright wins for 88, 472 for AQs, and 4 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
AQs versus 88 is this same page seen from the other hand: 47.40% for AQs, 52.60% for 88.
Keep exploring
Try 8s8h against AdQd in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 24 specific 88 against AQs deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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