99
52.77%
Wins 52.57%, ties 0.40%
AJs
47.23%
Wins 47.03%, ties 0.40%
99 against AJs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 52.574 | 0.400 | 47.026 | 52.774 |
| AJs | 47.026 | 0.400 | 52.574 | 47.226 |
The first hand is a pocket pair; the second is a suited hand. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
99 leads by less than 6 points of equity, so the result of any one deal is close to a toss-up. Ties are 0.40% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
For context, 99 sits at number 6 of 169 starting hands and AJs at number 11 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 21,605,000 | 164,000 | 19,325,000 |
| AJs | 19,325,000 | 164,000 | 21,605,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.117 | 1.902 | 2.126 | 0.895 |
| AJs | 0.895 | 2.126 | 1.902 | 1.117 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, 99 peaks at 76.71% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 46.86% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. Watch for rainbow flops topped by a ten or better: on those flops AJs holds the better equity.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | AJs wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 46.783 | 0.152 | 53.065 | 46.859 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 76.224 | 0.966 | 22.810 | 76.707 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 50.542 | 0.293 | 49.165 | 50.688 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 50.483 | 2.387 | 47.130 | 51.677 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 58.262 | 0.237 | 41.501 | 58.380 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 72.06% for 99, 65.39% for AJs. Here the change is -19.29 and -18.16 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 52.774 | 72.057 | -19.283 | 0.73239 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 46.859 | 72.057 | -25.198 | 0.65030 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 76.707 | 72.057 | +4.650 | 1.06453 |
| 99, two-tone | 50.688 | 72.057 | -21.369 | 0.70344 |
| 99, monotone | 51.677 | 72.057 | -20.380 | 0.71717 |
| 99, paired | 58.380 | 72.057 | -13.677 | 0.81019 |
| AJs, all flops | 47.226 | 65.393 | -18.167 | 0.72219 |
| AJs, rainbow, ten or higher | 53.141 | 65.393 | -12.252 | 0.81264 |
| AJs, rainbow, nine or lower | 23.293 | 65.393 | -42.100 | 0.35620 |
| AJs, two-tone | 49.312 | 65.393 | -16.081 | 0.75409 |
| AJs, monotone | 48.323 | 65.393 | -17.070 | 0.73896 |
| AJs, paired | 41.620 | 65.393 | -23.773 | 0.63646 |
Does a shared suit matter?
When the hands share a suit, 99 holds 52.94%; when they do not, it holds 52.60%. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 0.34 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | AJs wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.723 | 0.443 | 46.834 | 52.944 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.424 | 0.358 | 47.218 | 52.603 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 24 are 99 in one seat and AJs in the other (0.0015%); with the seats swapped too, 48 (0.0030%).
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 99's equity of 52.77% is worth $105.54, a $5.54 edge, and AJs' 47.23% is worth $94.46, which is $5.54 under its stake.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 526 for 99, 470 for AJs and 4 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
The reversed view, AJs against 99, shows 47.23% for AJs and 52.77% for 99. It is the same count, so it redirects here.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in 9s9h against AdJd, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 24 ways to deal one 99 and one AJs without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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