99
52.85%
Wins 52.65%, ties 0.40%
ATs
47.15%
Wins 46.95%, ties 0.40%
99 against ATs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 52.653 | 0.395 | 46.952 | 52.851 |
| ATs | 46.952 | 0.395 | 52.653 | 47.149 |
Here a pocket pair (99) meets a suited hand (ATs). One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
With only 5.70 points between them, the board decides this matchup far more than the cards in hand. The tie share is 0.40%: on those boards the pot is chopped and neither hand wins outright.
Place 6 of 169 belongs to 99 and place 13 belongs to ATs in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 21,638,000 | 162,000 | 19,295,000 |
| ATs | 19,295,000 | 162,000 | 21,638,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.121 | 1.899 | 2.130 | 0.892 |
| ATs | 0.892 | 2.130 | 1.899 | 1.121 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, 99 peaks at 76.33% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 47.05% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. ATs is ahead on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, even though it trails 99 when every flop is counted.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | ATs wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 46.961 | 0.171 | 52.868 | 47.047 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 75.908 | 0.850 | 23.242 | 76.333 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 50.618 | 0.287 | 49.095 | 50.762 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 50.523 | 2.384 | 47.093 | 51.715 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 58.363 | 0.241 | 41.396 | 58.483 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
A random hand would give 99 72.06% and ATs 64.60%. Against each other the change is -19.21 points for 99 and -17.45 for ATs.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 52.851 | 72.057 | -19.206 | 0.73346 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 47.047 | 72.057 | -25.010 | 0.65291 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 76.333 | 72.057 | +4.276 | 1.05934 |
| 99, two-tone | 50.762 | 72.057 | -21.295 | 0.70447 |
| 99, monotone | 51.715 | 72.057 | -20.342 | 0.71770 |
| 99, paired | 58.483 | 72.057 | -13.574 | 0.81162 |
| ATs, all flops | 47.149 | 64.602 | -17.453 | 0.72984 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 52.953 | 64.602 | -11.649 | 0.81968 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 23.667 | 64.602 | -40.935 | 0.36635 |
| ATs, two-tone | 49.238 | 64.602 | -15.364 | 0.76217 |
| ATs, monotone | 48.285 | 64.602 | -16.317 | 0.74742 |
| ATs, paired | 41.517 | 64.602 | -23.085 | 0.64266 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 12 of them the hands share a suit and 99 holds 53.01%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 52.69%. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 0.32 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | ATs wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.794 | 0.437 | 46.769 | 53.013 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.512 | 0.354 | 47.134 | 52.689 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 24 are 99 in one seat and ATs in the other (0.0015%); with the seats swapped too, 48 (0.0030%).
A worked example
With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $105.70 for 99 and $94.30 for ATs; the first side gains $5.70 per all-in and the second gives up $5.70.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 527 outright wins for 99, 469 for ATs, and 4 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for ATs against 99, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 47.15% and 52.85%.
Keep exploring
Try 9s9h against AdTd in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 24 specific 99 against ATs deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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