99
55.39%
Wins 55.19%, ties 0.39%
AQo
44.61%
Wins 44.42%, ties 0.39%
99 against AQo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 55.194 | 0.385 | 44.421 | 55.386 |
| AQo | 44.421 | 0.385 | 55.194 | 44.614 |
The matchup pits a pocket pair against an offsuit hand. A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
The lead is steady rather than large, and the flop still has plenty of say in who wins. Split pots make up 0.39% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, 99 is number 6 and AQo is number 14.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 68,046,000 | 475,000 | 54,765,000 |
| AQo | 54,765,000 | 475,000 | 68,046,000 |
72 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.241 | 1.812 | 2.251 | 0.806 |
| AQo | 0.806 | 2.251 | 1.812 | 1.241 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and 99 is strongest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (79.63%) and weakest on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better (48.19%). AQo is ahead on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, even though it trails 99 when every flop is counted.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | AQo wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.717 | 48.112 | 0.154 | 51.734 | 48.189 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 79.099 | 1.065 | 19.836 | 79.631 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 54.091 | 0.325 | 45.584 | 54.254 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 50.844 | 1.708 | 47.448 | 51.698 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 60.834 | 0.233 | 38.933 | 60.950 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts 99 from 72.06% by -16.67 points and AQo from 64.43% by -19.82 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 55.386 | 72.057 | -16.671 | 0.76864 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.189 | 72.057 | -23.868 | 0.66876 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 79.631 | 72.057 | +7.574 | 1.10511 |
| 99, two-tone | 54.254 | 72.057 | -17.803 | 0.75293 |
| 99, monotone | 51.698 | 72.057 | -20.359 | 0.71746 |
| 99, paired | 60.950 | 72.057 | -11.107 | 0.84586 |
| AQo, all flops | 44.614 | 64.432 | -19.818 | 0.69242 |
| AQo, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.811 | 64.432 | -12.621 | 0.80412 |
| AQo, rainbow, nine or lower | 20.369 | 64.432 | -44.063 | 0.31613 |
| AQo, two-tone | 45.746 | 64.432 | -18.686 | 0.70999 |
| AQo, monotone | 48.302 | 64.432 | -16.130 | 0.74966 |
| AQo, paired | 39.050 | 64.432 | -25.382 | 0.60607 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give 99 55.30% when the hands overlap in a suit and 55.80% when they do not. 99 does better with no shared suit, by 0.50 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | AQo wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 55.104 | 0.401 | 44.495 | 55.304 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 55.644 | 0.305 | 44.051 | 55.797 |
How often this matchup comes up
99 against AQo is made up of 72 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0044% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 144 counting both seat orders, 0.0089%.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, 99's average share is $110.78 (a gain of $10.78) and AQo's is $89.22 (a loss of $10.78).
Think in thousands: about 552 of 1,000 go to 99, about 444 go to AQo, and about 4 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
The mirror image, AQo against 99, is 44.61% to 55.39%, and its address redirects to this page.
Keep exploring
Try 9s9h against AdQc in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 72 ways to deal one 99 and one AQo without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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