99
55.25%
Wins 55.05%, ties 0.40%
KQo
44.75%
Wins 44.55%, ties 0.40%
99 against KQo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 55.048 | 0.396 | 44.556 | 55.246 |
| KQo | 44.556 | 0.396 | 55.048 | 44.754 |
99 is a pocket pair and KQo is an offsuit hand. This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
A 10.50 point lead is real, and KQo still takes about 446 of every 1,000 deals outright. 0.40% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
The hand ranking puts 99 at 6 and KQo at 23 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 67,866,000 | 488,000 | 54,931,000 |
| KQo | 54,931,000 | 488,000 | 67,866,000 |
The total is exact: 72 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.234 | 1.817 | 2.244 | 0.810 |
| KQo | 0.810 | 2.244 | 1.817 | 1.234 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. 99 does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 80.93%, and worst on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, at 47.59%. The overall edge for 99 hides rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, where KQo comes out in front.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | KQo wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.717 | 47.512 | 0.159 | 52.329 | 47.591 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 80.377 | 1.101 | 18.522 | 80.928 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 53.873 | 0.336 | 45.791 | 54.041 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 50.650 | 1.715 | 47.635 | 51.507 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 61.029 | 0.249 | 38.722 | 61.153 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of -16.81 points for 99, from 72.06%, and -16.71 for KQo, from 61.46%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 55.246 | 72.057 | -16.811 | 0.76670 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 47.591 | 72.057 | -24.466 | 0.66046 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 80.928 | 72.057 | +8.871 | 1.12311 |
| 99, two-tone | 54.041 | 72.057 | -18.016 | 0.74998 |
| 99, monotone | 51.507 | 72.057 | -20.550 | 0.71481 |
| 99, paired | 61.153 | 72.057 | -10.904 | 0.84868 |
| KQo, all flops | 44.754 | 61.456 | -16.702 | 0.72823 |
| KQo, rainbow, ten or higher | 52.409 | 61.456 | -9.047 | 0.85279 |
| KQo, rainbow, nine or lower | 19.072 | 61.456 | -42.384 | 0.31034 |
| KQo, two-tone | 45.959 | 61.456 | -15.497 | 0.74784 |
| KQo, monotone | 48.493 | 61.456 | -12.963 | 0.78907 |
| KQo, paired | 38.847 | 61.456 | -22.609 | 0.63211 |
Does a shared suit matter?
When the hands share a suit, 99 holds 55.16%; when they do not, it holds 55.66%. 99 does better with no shared suit, by 0.50 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | KQo wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 54.957 | 0.412 | 44.631 | 55.163 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 55.506 | 0.317 | 44.177 | 55.664 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, 99 against KQo appears in 72 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0044%), and in 144 when the seats are swapped too (0.0089%).
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: 99 averages $110.50 back, ahead of its $100 by $10.50, while KQo averages $89.50, short of its $100 by $10.50.
Per 1,000 deals: 99 wins about 550, KQo wins about 446, and about 4 end in a split pot.
The same matchup from the other side
The reversed view, KQo against 99, shows 44.75% for KQo and 55.25% for 99. It is the same count, so it redirects here.
Keep exploring
9s9h against KdQc is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 72 deals of 99 against KQo fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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