99
70.45%
Wins 69.31%, ties 2.28%
A9o
29.55%
Wins 28.41%, ties 2.28%
99 against A9o: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 69.310 | 2.282 | 28.408 | 70.451 |
| A9o | 28.408 | 2.282 | 69.310 | 29.549 |
The matchup pits a pocket pair against an offsuit hand. The pair already holds one of the other hand's ranks, and that overlap cuts down the cards the other hand can pair with.
That is a clear edge, 70.45% to 29.55%, but A9o still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. Ties are 2.28% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
For context, 99 sits at number 6 of 169 starting hands and A9o at number 25 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 42,725,000 | 1,407,000 | 17,512,000 |
| A9o | 17,512,000 | 1,407,000 | 42,725,000 |
Exact total: 36 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 2.384 | 1.443 | 3.520 | 0.419 |
| A9o | 0.419 | 3.520 | 1.443 | 2.384 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. 99 does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 85.02%, and worst on monotone flops, at 63.18%. 99 stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | A9o wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.239 | 65.964 | 2.223 | 31.813 | 67.076 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.585 | 82.835 | 4.362 | 12.803 | 85.016 |
| Two-tone | 46.215 | 68.218 | 2.489 | 29.293 | 69.463 |
| Monotone | 5.130 | 61.833 | 2.688 | 35.479 | 63.177 |
| Paired | 17.831 | 74.792 | 1.060 | 24.148 | 75.322 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
A random hand would give 99 72.06% and A9o 60.77%. Against each other the change is -1.61 points for 99 and -31.22 for A9o.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 70.451 | 72.057 | -1.606 | 0.97771 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 67.076 | 72.057 | -4.981 | 0.93087 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 85.016 | 72.057 | +12.959 | 1.17984 |
| 99, two-tone | 69.463 | 72.057 | -2.594 | 0.96400 |
| 99, monotone | 63.177 | 72.057 | -8.880 | 0.87676 |
| 99, paired | 75.322 | 72.057 | +3.265 | 1.04531 |
| A9o, all flops | 29.549 | 60.773 | -31.224 | 0.48622 |
| A9o, rainbow, ten or higher | 32.924 | 60.773 | -27.849 | 0.54175 |
| A9o, rainbow, nine or lower | 14.984 | 60.773 | -45.789 | 0.24656 |
| A9o, two-tone | 30.537 | 60.773 | -30.236 | 0.50248 |
| A9o, monotone | 36.823 | 60.773 | -23.950 | 0.60591 |
| A9o, paired | 24.678 | 60.773 | -36.095 | 0.40607 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Does suit overlap move the numbers? 99 has 70.40% when the hands share a suit and 70.56% when they do not. The two rows differ by only 0.16 points, so suits barely change this matchup.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | A9o wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 24 | 66.67 | 69.236 | 2.318 | 28.446 | 70.395 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 33.33 | 69.459 | 2.210 | 28.331 | 70.564 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, 99 against A9o appears in 36 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0022%), and in 72 when the seats are swapped too (0.0044%).
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: 99 averages $140.90 back, ahead of its $100 by $40.90, while A9o averages $59.10, short of its $100 by $40.90.
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 693 wins for 99, 284 for A9o and 23 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Swap the hands and you get A9o with 29.55% against 99 with 70.45%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first.
Keep exploring
Try 9s9h against Ad9c in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 36 specific 99 against A9o deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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