99
80.84%
Wins 80.49%, ties 0.69%
55
19.16%
Wins 18.82%, ties 0.69%
99 against 55: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 80.491 | 0.691 | 18.818 | 80.836 |
| 55 | 18.818 | 0.691 | 80.491 | 19.164 |
This is a contest between two pocket pairs, 99 and 55. A pair against a smaller pair is the classic crush: the smaller pair needs one of its two remaining cards to make a set.
A gap this wide means 55 is in trouble before the flop and has few good runouts. A split pot comes up on 0.69% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
99 ranks number 6 of 169 starting hands, and 55 ranks number 27, by equity against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 49,617,000 | 426,000 | 11,600,000 |
| 55 | 11,600,000 | 426,000 | 49,617,000 |
The total is exact: 36 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 4.218 | 1.242 | 5.314 | 0.237 |
| 55 | 0.237 | 5.314 | 1.242 | 4.218 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, 99's equity runs from 69.93% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) up to 86.05% on paired flops. 99 stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | 55 wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 82.197 | 0.411 | 17.392 | 82.402 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 69.550 | 0.753 | 29.697 | 69.927 |
| Two-tone | 46.363 | 79.561 | 0.454 | 19.985 | 79.788 |
| Monotone | 5.152 | 74.349 | 1.972 | 23.679 | 75.335 |
| Paired | 17.576 | 85.387 | 1.334 | 13.279 | 86.054 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
A random hand would give 99 72.06% and 55 60.33%. Against each other the change is +8.78 points for 99 and -41.17 for 55.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 80.836 | 72.057 | +8.779 | 1.12183 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 82.402 | 72.057 | +10.345 | 1.14357 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 69.927 | 72.057 | -2.130 | 0.97044 |
| 99, two-tone | 79.788 | 72.057 | +7.731 | 1.10729 |
| 99, monotone | 75.335 | 72.057 | +3.278 | 1.04549 |
| 99, paired | 86.054 | 72.057 | +13.997 | 1.19425 |
| 55, all flops | 19.164 | 60.325 | -41.161 | 0.31768 |
| 55, rainbow, ten or higher | 17.598 | 60.325 | -42.727 | 0.29172 |
| 55, rainbow, nine or lower | 30.073 | 60.325 | -30.252 | 0.49852 |
| 55, two-tone | 20.212 | 60.325 | -40.113 | 0.33505 |
| 55, monotone | 24.665 | 60.325 | -35.660 | 0.40887 |
| 55, paired | 13.946 | 60.325 | -46.379 | 0.23118 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, 99 has 80.97%; looking only at deals where they do not, 80.17%. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 0.80 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | 55 wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 30 | 83.33 | 80.616 | 0.706 | 18.678 | 80.969 |
| No shared suit | 6 | 16.67 | 79.863 | 0.617 | 19.520 | 80.171 |
How often this matchup comes up
Exactly 36 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0022% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 72, or 0.0044%.
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. 99 averages $161.68 from the $200, up $61.68; 55 averages $38.32, down $61.68.
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 805 won outright by 99, about 188 won outright by 55 and about 7 split.
The same matchup from the other side
55 versus 99 is this same page seen from the other hand: 19.16% for 55, 80.84% for 99.
Keep exploring
Try 9s9h against 5d5c in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 36 deals of 99 against 55 fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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