99
65.37%
Wins 64.33%, ties 2.09%
K9s
34.63%
Wins 33.58%, ties 2.09%
99 against K9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 64.329 | 2.085 | 33.586 | 65.371 |
| K9s | 33.586 | 2.085 | 64.329 | 34.629 |
We compare a pocket pair with a suited hand. The non-pair hand shares a rank with the pair, so two of its outs for pairing are blocked by the pair itself.
99 is the clear favorite, though K9s gets there on roughly one board in 3. Ties are part of the picture: 2.09% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, 99 is number 6 and K9s is number 29.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 13,218,000 | 428,000 | 6,901,000 |
| K9s | 6,901,000 | 428,000 | 13,218,000 |
Exact total: 12 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.888 | 1.555 | 2.977 | 0.530 |
| K9s | 0.530 | 2.977 | 1.555 | 1.888 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures 99's equity moves by 22.54 points, from 61.12% on monotone flops to 83.66% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). 99 stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | K9s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.197 | 61.672 | 2.010 | 36.318 | 62.677 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.585 | 81.552 | 4.211 | 14.237 | 83.658 |
| Two-tone | 46.236 | 62.022 | 2.171 | 35.807 | 63.107 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 59.684 | 2.875 | 37.441 | 61.121 |
| Paired | 17.831 | 70.013 | 1.074 | 28.913 | 70.550 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 72.06% for 99, 59.99% for K9s. Here the change is -6.69 and -25.36 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 65.371 | 72.057 | -6.686 | 0.90721 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 62.677 | 72.057 | -9.380 | 0.86983 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 83.658 | 72.057 | +11.601 | 1.16100 |
| 99, two-tone | 63.107 | 72.057 | -8.950 | 0.87579 |
| 99, monotone | 61.121 | 72.057 | -10.936 | 0.84823 |
| 99, paired | 70.550 | 72.057 | -1.507 | 0.97909 |
| K9s, all flops | 34.629 | 59.988 | -25.359 | 0.57727 |
| K9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 37.323 | 59.988 | -22.665 | 0.62217 |
| K9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 16.342 | 59.988 | -43.646 | 0.27242 |
| K9s, two-tone | 36.893 | 59.988 | -23.095 | 0.61501 |
| K9s, monotone | 38.879 | 59.988 | -21.109 | 0.64811 |
| K9s, paired | 29.450 | 59.988 | -30.538 | 0.49093 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The hands cannot hold a suit in common here, which leaves a single case and a single number: 65.37% for 99.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | K9s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 64.329 | 2.085 | 33.586 | 65.371 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0015% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 24 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 99's equity of 65.37% is worth $130.74, a $30.74 edge, and K9s' 34.63% is worth $69.26, which is $30.74 under its stake.
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 643 wins for 99, 336 for K9s and 21 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Swap the hands and you get K9s with 34.63% against 99 with 65.37%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in 9s9h against Kd9d, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 12 deals of 99 against K9s fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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