99
66.04%
Wins 65.83%, ties 0.42%
A5s
33.96%
Wins 33.75%, ties 0.42%
99 against A5s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 65.828 | 0.421 | 33.751 | 66.038 |
| A5s | 33.751 | 0.421 | 65.828 | 33.962 |
99 is a pocket pair and A5s is a suited hand. The pair sits between the other hand's two cards: one is higher and one is lower, so the pair is exposed to the higher card.
That is a clear edge, 66.04% to 33.96%, but A5s still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. Ties are 0.42% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
99 ranks number 6 of 169 starting hands, and A5s ranks number 30, by equity against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 27,052,000 | 173,000 | 13,870,000 |
| A5s | 13,870,000 | 173,000 | 27,052,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.944 | 1.519 | 2.963 | 0.514 |
| A5s | 0.514 | 2.963 | 1.519 | 1.944 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and 99 is strongest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (74.53%) and weakest on monotone flops (62.16%). 99 stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | A5s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.220 | 65.791 | 0.199 | 34.010 | 65.890 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.689 | 74.074 | 0.903 | 25.023 | 74.526 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 64.222 | 0.306 | 35.472 | 64.375 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 60.960 | 2.402 | 36.638 | 62.161 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 68.949 | 0.301 | 30.750 | 69.100 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, 99 changes by -6.02 points (baseline 72.06%) and A5s by -25.96 points (baseline 59.92%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 66.038 | 72.057 | -6.019 | 0.91647 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 65.890 | 72.057 | -6.167 | 0.91441 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 74.526 | 72.057 | +2.469 | 1.03426 |
| 99, two-tone | 64.375 | 72.057 | -7.682 | 0.89339 |
| 99, monotone | 62.161 | 72.057 | -9.896 | 0.86266 |
| 99, paired | 69.100 | 72.057 | -2.957 | 0.95896 |
| A5s, all flops | 33.962 | 59.923 | -25.961 | 0.56676 |
| A5s, rainbow, ten or higher | 34.110 | 59.923 | -25.813 | 0.56923 |
| A5s, rainbow, nine or lower | 25.474 | 59.923 | -34.449 | 0.42511 |
| A5s, two-tone | 35.625 | 59.923 | -24.298 | 0.59451 |
| A5s, monotone | 37.839 | 59.923 | -22.084 | 0.63146 |
| A5s, paired | 30.900 | 59.923 | -29.023 | 0.51566 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 12 of them the hands share a suit and 99 holds 66.32%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 65.76%. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 0.56 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | A5s wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 66.088 | 0.466 | 33.446 | 66.321 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 65.567 | 0.377 | 34.056 | 65.756 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 24 specific-card matchups (0.0015% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 48 once you count the seats both ways (0.0030%).
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. 99 averages $132.08 from the $200, up $32.08; A5s averages $67.92, down $32.08.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 658 for 99, 338 for A5s and 4 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
One page covers both views. From A5s' side the equity is 33.96%, and from 99's side it is 66.04%.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 9s9h against Ad5d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 24 specific 99 against A5s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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