99
51.91%
Wins 51.70%, ties 0.41%
QJs
48.09%
Wins 47.89%, ties 0.41%
99 against QJs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 51.704 | 0.414 | 47.882 | 51.911 |
| QJs | 47.882 | 0.414 | 51.704 | 48.089 |
Here a pocket pair (99) meets a suited hand (QJs). A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
99 leads by less than 4 points of equity, so the result of any one deal is close to a toss-up. Split pots make up 0.41% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
By strength against a random hand, 99 holds place 6 of 169 and QJs holds place 28.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 21,248,000 | 170,000 | 19,677,000 |
| QJs | 19,677,000 | 170,000 | 21,248,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.079 | 1.934 | 2.088 | 0.926 |
| QJs | 0.926 | 2.088 | 1.934 | 1.079 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, 99's equity runs from 45.34% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better up to 77.04% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). The overall edge for 99 hides rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and two-tone flops, where QJs comes out in front.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | QJs wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 45.266 | 0.154 | 54.580 | 45.343 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 76.550 | 0.982 | 22.468 | 77.041 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 49.496 | 0.298 | 50.206 | 49.645 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 49.601 | 2.391 | 48.008 | 50.796 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 58.352 | 0.291 | 41.357 | 58.498 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts 99 from 72.06% by -20.15 points and QJs from 60.26% by -12.17 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 51.911 | 72.057 | -20.146 | 0.72042 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 45.343 | 72.057 | -26.714 | 0.62927 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 77.041 | 72.057 | +4.984 | 1.06917 |
| 99, two-tone | 49.645 | 72.057 | -22.412 | 0.68897 |
| 99, monotone | 50.796 | 72.057 | -21.261 | 0.70494 |
| 99, paired | 58.498 | 72.057 | -13.559 | 0.81183 |
| QJs, all flops | 48.089 | 60.259 | -12.170 | 0.79804 |
| QJs, rainbow, ten or higher | 54.657 | 60.259 | -5.602 | 0.90703 |
| QJs, rainbow, nine or lower | 22.959 | 60.259 | -37.300 | 0.38101 |
| QJs, two-tone | 50.355 | 60.259 | -9.904 | 0.83564 |
| QJs, monotone | 49.204 | 60.259 | -11.055 | 0.81654 |
| QJs, paired | 41.502 | 60.259 | -18.757 | 0.68873 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common 99 has 52.04% equity, and with none in common it has 51.79%. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 0.25 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | QJs wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 51.810 | 0.455 | 47.735 | 52.038 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 51.599 | 0.372 | 48.029 | 51.785 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0030% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 48 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, 99's average share is $103.82 (a gain of $3.82) and QJs' is $96.18 (a loss of $3.82).
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 517 wins for 99, 479 for QJs and 4 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
The reversed view, QJs against 99, shows 48.09% for QJs and 51.91% for 99. It is the same count, so it redirects here.
Keep exploring
9s9h against QdJd is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 24 deals of 99 against QJs fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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