A2s
56.95%
Wins 56.71%, ties 0.49%
JTo
43.05%
Wins 42.80%, ties 0.49%
A2s against JTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A2s | 56.705 | 0.486 | 42.809 | 56.948 |
| JTo | 42.809 | 0.486 | 56.705 | 43.052 |
The first hand is a suited hand; the second is an offsuit hand. With no overlap in ranks, every card that pairs one hand is a card that does not pair the other.
The lead is steady rather than large, and the flop still has plenty of say in who wins. A split pot comes up on 0.49% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, A2s is number 46 and JTo is number 57.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| A2s | 46,606,000 | 399,000 | 35,185,000 |
| JTo | 35,185,000 | 399,000 | 46,606,000 |
The board total is exact, 48 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A2s | 1.323 | 1.764 | 2.336 | 0.756 |
| JTo | 0.756 | 2.336 | 1.764 | 1.323 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, A2s peaks at 70.16% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 50.02% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. A2s stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | A2s wins | Ties | JTo wins | A2s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.988 | 49.940 | 0.165 | 49.895 | 50.023 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 69.699 | 0.929 | 29.372 | 70.163 |
| Two-tone | 46.667 | 56.317 | 0.309 | 43.374 | 56.471 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 53.117 | 2.397 | 44.486 | 54.315 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 63.003 | 0.653 | 36.344 | 63.329 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, A2s changes by -0.43 points (baseline 57.38%) and JTo by -12.20 points (baseline 55.25%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A2s, all flops | 56.948 | 57.379 | -0.431 | 0.99249 |
| A2s, rainbow, ten or higher | 50.023 | 57.379 | -7.356 | 0.87180 |
| A2s, rainbow, nine or lower | 70.163 | 57.379 | +12.784 | 1.22280 |
| A2s, two-tone | 56.471 | 57.379 | -0.908 | 0.98418 |
| A2s, monotone | 54.315 | 57.379 | -3.064 | 0.94660 |
| A2s, paired | 63.329 | 57.379 | +5.950 | 1.10370 |
| JTo, all flops | 43.052 | 55.248 | -12.196 | 0.77925 |
| JTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 49.977 | 55.248 | -5.271 | 0.90459 |
| JTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 29.837 | 55.248 | -25.411 | 0.54006 |
| JTo, two-tone | 43.529 | 55.248 | -11.719 | 0.78788 |
| JTo, monotone | 45.685 | 55.248 | -9.563 | 0.82691 |
| JTo, paired | 36.671 | 55.248 | -18.577 | 0.66375 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Of the deals of this matchup, 24 share a suit (A2s at 56.59%) and 24 do not (57.31%). A2s does better with no shared suit, by 0.72 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | A2s wins | Ties | JTo wins | A2s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 24 | 50.00 | 56.321 | 0.528 | 43.151 | 56.585 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 50.00 | 57.090 | 0.443 | 42.467 | 57.312 |
How often this matchup comes up
How often does it happen? 48 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0030%) are A2s against JTo, and 96 (0.0059%) if either hand may sit in either seat.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, A2s' average share is $113.90 (a gain of $13.90) and JTo's is $86.10 (a loss of $13.90).
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 567 for A2s, 428 for JTo and 5 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for JTo against A2s, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 43.05% and 56.95%.
Keep exploring
Try As2s against JhTd in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 48 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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