A9s
48.49%
Wins 48.23%, ties 0.52%
44
51.51%
Wins 51.25%, ties 0.52%
A9s against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A9s | 48.233 | 0.520 | 51.247 | 48.493 |
| 44 | 51.247 | 0.520 | 48.233 | 51.507 |
A9s, a suited hand, plays 44, a pocket pair. A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
That is a slim edge: neither hand is far ahead. About 0.52% of boards chop the pot, which is why equity sits slightly above the win figure for both hands.
A9s ranks number 18 of 169 starting hands, and 44 ranks number 48, by equity against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| A9s | 19,821,000 | 214,000 | 21,060,000 |
| 44 | 21,060,000 | 214,000 | 19,821,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A9s | 0.941 | 2.073 | 1.951 | 1.062 |
| 44 | 1.062 | 1.951 | 2.073 | 0.941 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, 44 peaks at 58.47% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 50.29% on two-tone flops. 44 stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | A9s wins | Ties | 44 wins | A9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.220 | 48.645 | 0.247 | 51.108 | 48.768 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.689 | 41.095 | 0.866 | 58.039 | 41.528 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 49.546 | 0.334 | 50.120 | 49.713 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 47.452 | 2.826 | 49.722 | 48.865 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 46.685 | 0.609 | 52.706 | 46.989 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 62.78% for A9s, 57.02% for 44. Here the change is -14.29 and -5.51 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A9s, all flops | 48.493 | 62.781 | -14.288 | 0.77242 |
| A9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.768 | 62.781 | -14.013 | 0.77680 |
| A9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 41.528 | 62.781 | -21.253 | 0.66147 |
| A9s, two-tone | 49.713 | 62.781 | -13.068 | 0.79185 |
| A9s, monotone | 48.865 | 62.781 | -13.916 | 0.77834 |
| A9s, paired | 46.989 | 62.781 | -15.792 | 0.74846 |
| 44, all flops | 51.507 | 57.023 | -5.516 | 0.90327 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.232 | 57.023 | -5.791 | 0.89844 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 58.472 | 57.023 | +1.449 | 1.02541 |
| 44, two-tone | 50.287 | 57.023 | -6.736 | 0.88187 |
| 44, monotone | 51.135 | 57.023 | -5.888 | 0.89674 |
| 44, paired | 53.011 | 57.023 | -4.012 | 0.92964 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, 44 has 51.70%; looking only at deals where they do not, 51.32%. 44 does better with a shared suit, by 0.38 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | A9s wins | Ties | 44 wins | A9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 48.025 | 0.556 | 51.419 | 48.303 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 48.441 | 0.483 | 51.076 | 48.682 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 24 specific-card matchups (0.0015% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 48 once you count the seats both ways (0.0030%).
A worked example
With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $103.02 for 44 and $96.98 for A9s; the first side gains $3.02 per all-in and the second gives up $3.02.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 513 for 44, 482 for A9s and 5 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: 44 against A9s is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so 44 holds 51.51% and A9s holds 48.49%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
Try As9s against 4h4d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 24 deals of A9s against 44 fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session