AA
77.94%
Wins 77.77%, ties 0.35%
98s
22.06%
Wins 21.88%, ties 0.35%
AA against 98s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 77.767 | 0.347 | 21.886 | 77.940 |
| 98s | 21.886 | 0.347 | 77.767 | 22.060 |
The first hand is a pocket pair; the second is a suited hand. The pair outranks both of the other hand's cards, which is why the pair is a strong favorite.
AA is the clear favorite, though 98s gets there on roughly one board in 5. The tie share is 0.35%: on those boards the pot is chopped and neither hand wins outright.
The hand ranking puts AA at 1 and 98s at 83 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 31,959,000 | 143,000 | 8,994,000 |
| 98s | 8,994,000 | 143,000 | 31,959,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 3.533 | 1.286 | 4.569 | 0.283 |
| 98s | 0.283 | 4.569 | 1.286 | 3.533 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. AA does best on paired flops, at 82.29%, and worst on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 72.76%. AA stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | AA wins | Ties | 98s wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 80.915 | 0.194 | 18.891 | 81.012 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 72.413 | 0.689 | 26.898 | 72.758 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 75.827 | 0.280 | 23.893 | 75.967 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 71.680 | 2.390 | 25.930 | 72.875 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 82.289 | 0.007 | 17.704 | 82.292 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Start from the random-hand figures, 85.20% for AA and 50.80% for 98s. This opponent changes them by -7.26 and -28.74 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA, all flops | 77.940 | 85.204 | -7.264 | 0.91475 |
| AA, rainbow, ten or higher | 81.012 | 85.204 | -4.192 | 0.95080 |
| AA, rainbow, nine or lower | 72.758 | 85.204 | -12.446 | 0.85393 |
| AA, two-tone | 75.967 | 85.204 | -9.237 | 0.89159 |
| AA, monotone | 72.875 | 85.204 | -12.329 | 0.85530 |
| AA, paired | 82.292 | 85.204 | -2.912 | 0.96582 |
| 98s, all flops | 22.060 | 50.801 | -28.741 | 0.43424 |
| 98s, rainbow, ten or higher | 18.988 | 50.801 | -31.813 | 0.37377 |
| 98s, rainbow, nine or lower | 27.242 | 50.801 | -23.559 | 0.53625 |
| 98s, two-tone | 24.033 | 50.801 | -26.768 | 0.47308 |
| 98s, monotone | 27.125 | 50.801 | -23.676 | 0.53395 |
| 98s, paired | 17.708 | 50.801 | -33.093 | 0.34858 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 78.50% for AA with a shared suit and 77.38% without one. AA does better with a shared suit, by 1.12 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AA wins | Ties | 98s wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 78.309 | 0.389 | 21.302 | 78.504 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 77.225 | 0.304 | 22.471 | 77.377 |
How often this matchup comes up
AA against 98s is made up of 24 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0015% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 48 counting both seat orders, 0.0030%.
A worked example
With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $155.88 for AA and $44.12 for 98s; the first side gains $55.88 per all-in and the second gives up $55.88.
Per 1,000 deals: AA wins about 778, 98s wins about 219, and about 3 end in a split pot.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for 98s against AA, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 22.06% and 77.94%.
Keep exploring
AsAh against 9d8d is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 24 specific AA against 98s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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