AA
86.66%
Wins 86.05%, ties 1.22%
ATs
13.34%
Wins 12.73%, ties 1.22%
AA against ATs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 86.052 | 1.223 | 12.725 | 86.664 |
| ATs | 12.725 | 1.223 | 86.052 | 13.336 |
The matchup pits a pocket pair against a suited hand. One hand holds a card of the same rank as the pair, which removes a card the pair needs and makes the pair a bigger favorite.
This is one of the lopsided matchups: ATs wins only 12.73% of the boards outright. Ties are part of the picture: 1.22% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
For context, AA sits at number 1 of 169 starting hands and ATs at number 13 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 17,682,000 | 251,000 | 2,615,000 |
| ATs | 2,615,000 | 251,000 | 17,682,000 |
12 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 6.499 | 1.162 | 7.859 | 0.154 |
| ATs | 0.154 | 7.859 | 1.162 | 6.499 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, AA's equity runs from 76.81% on monotone flops up to 92.58% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AA stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AA wins | Ties | ATs wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.011 | 88.595 | 1.058 | 10.347 | 89.124 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 91.327 | 2.496 | 6.177 | 92.575 |
| Two-tone | 46.236 | 84.467 | 1.289 | 14.244 | 85.111 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 75.649 | 2.322 | 22.029 | 76.810 |
| Paired | 17.831 | 87.588 | 0.393 | 12.019 | 87.785 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
A random hand would give AA 85.20% and ATs 64.60%. Against each other the change is +1.46 points for AA and -51.26 for ATs.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA, all flops | 86.664 | 85.204 | +1.460 | 1.01714 |
| AA, rainbow, ten or higher | 89.124 | 85.204 | +3.920 | 1.04601 |
| AA, rainbow, nine or lower | 92.575 | 85.204 | +7.371 | 1.08651 |
| AA, two-tone | 85.111 | 85.204 | -0.093 | 0.99891 |
| AA, monotone | 76.810 | 85.204 | -8.394 | 0.90148 |
| AA, paired | 87.785 | 85.204 | +2.581 | 1.03029 |
| ATs, all flops | 13.336 | 64.602 | -51.266 | 0.20643 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 10.876 | 64.602 | -53.726 | 0.16835 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 7.425 | 64.602 | -57.177 | 0.11493 |
| ATs, two-tone | 14.889 | 64.602 | -49.713 | 0.23047 |
| ATs, monotone | 23.190 | 64.602 | -41.412 | 0.35897 |
| ATs, paired | 12.215 | 64.602 | -52.387 | 0.18908 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The hands cannot hold a suit in common here, which leaves a single case and a single number: 86.66% for AA.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AA wins | Ties | ATs wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 86.052 | 1.223 | 12.725 | 86.664 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 12 specific-card matchups (0.0007% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 24 once you count the seats both ways (0.0015%).
A worked example
With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $173.32 for AA and $26.68 for ATs; the first side gains $73.32 per all-in and the second gives up $73.32.
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 861 won outright by AA, about 127 won outright by ATs and about 12 split.
The same matchup from the other side
One page covers both views. From ATs' side the equity is 13.34%, and from AA's side it is 86.66%.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsAh against AdTd already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 12 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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