AA
79.44%
Wins 79.25%, ties 0.37%
J9s
20.56%
Wins 20.38%, ties 0.37%
AA against J9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 79.254 | 0.371 | 20.375 | 79.439 |
| J9s | 20.375 | 0.371 | 79.254 | 20.561 |
AA is a pocket pair and J9s is a suited hand. A pair against two lower cards is a lopsided matchup: the pair is ahead and the other hand has no overcard to catch.
A lead of 58.88 points is large but not decisive: J9s still takes about 204 of every 1,000 deals. A split pot comes up on 0.37% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
Among the 169 starting hands, AA is number 1 and J9s is number 55 by strength against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 32,570,000 | 152,000 | 8,373,000 |
| J9s | 8,373,000 | 152,000 | 32,570,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 3.864 | 1.262 | 4.908 | 0.259 |
| J9s | 0.259 | 4.908 | 1.262 | 3.864 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: AA holds 85.18% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and 74.08% on monotone flops. AA stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | AA wins | Ties | J9s wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 79.759 | 0.157 | 20.084 | 79.837 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 84.720 | 0.918 | 14.362 | 85.179 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 77.415 | 0.306 | 22.279 | 77.568 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 72.880 | 2.401 | 24.719 | 74.080 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 83.194 | 0.007 | 16.799 | 83.197 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts AA from 85.20% by -5.76 points and J9s from 55.66% by -35.10 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA, all flops | 79.439 | 85.204 | -5.765 | 0.93234 |
| AA, rainbow, ten or higher | 79.837 | 85.204 | -5.367 | 0.93701 |
| AA, rainbow, nine or lower | 85.179 | 85.204 | -0.025 | 0.99971 |
| AA, two-tone | 77.568 | 85.204 | -7.636 | 0.91038 |
| AA, monotone | 74.080 | 85.204 | -11.124 | 0.86944 |
| AA, paired | 83.197 | 85.204 | -2.007 | 0.97644 |
| J9s, all flops | 20.561 | 55.662 | -35.101 | 0.36939 |
| J9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 20.163 | 55.662 | -35.499 | 0.36224 |
| J9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 14.821 | 55.662 | -40.841 | 0.26627 |
| J9s, two-tone | 22.432 | 55.662 | -33.230 | 0.40300 |
| J9s, monotone | 25.920 | 55.662 | -29.742 | 0.46567 |
| J9s, paired | 16.803 | 55.662 | -38.859 | 0.30188 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Of the deals of this matchup, 12 share a suit (AA at 80.03%) and 12 do not (78.85%). AA does better with a shared suit, by 1.18 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AA wins | Ties | J9s wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 79.820 | 0.413 | 19.767 | 80.027 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 78.688 | 0.329 | 20.983 | 78.852 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 24 specific-card matchups (0.0015% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 48 once you count the seats both ways (0.0030%).
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. AA averages $158.88 from the $200, up $58.88; J9s averages $41.12, down $58.88.
Per 1,000 deals: AA wins about 792, J9s wins about 204, and about 4 end in a split pot.
The same matchup from the other side
J9s versus AA is this same page seen from the other hand: 20.56% for J9s, 79.44% for AA.
Keep exploring
Try AsAh against Jd9d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 24 deals of AA against J9s fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session