AA
78.84%
Wins 78.65%, ties 0.38%
JTs
21.16%
Wins 20.97%, ties 0.38%
AA against JTs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 78.651 | 0.377 | 20.972 | 78.840 |
| JTs | 20.972 | 0.377 | 78.651 | 21.160 |
We compare a pocket pair with a suited hand. A pair against two lower cards is a lopsided matchup: the pair is ahead and the other hand has no overcard to catch.
That is a clear edge, 78.84% to 21.16%, but JTs still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. Split pots make up 0.38% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
Place 1 of 169 belongs to AA and place 45 belongs to JTs in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 32,322,000 | 155,000 | 8,619,000 |
| JTs | 8,619,000 | 155,000 | 32,322,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 3.726 | 1.271 | 4.768 | 0.268 |
| JTs | 0.268 | 4.768 | 1.271 | 3.726 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, AA's equity runs from 73.48% on monotone flops up to 85.85% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AA stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | AA wins | Ties | JTs wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.138 | 78.333 | 0.153 | 21.514 | 78.409 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 85.404 | 0.897 | 13.699 | 85.852 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 76.696 | 0.314 | 22.990 | 76.853 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 72.280 | 2.405 | 25.315 | 73.482 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 83.211 | 0.007 | 16.782 | 83.215 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of -6.36 points for AA, from 85.20%, and -36.37 for JTs, from 57.53%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA, all flops | 78.840 | 85.204 | -6.364 | 0.92531 |
| AA, rainbow, ten or higher | 78.409 | 85.204 | -6.795 | 0.92025 |
| AA, rainbow, nine or lower | 85.852 | 85.204 | +0.648 | 1.00761 |
| AA, two-tone | 76.853 | 85.204 | -8.351 | 0.90199 |
| AA, monotone | 73.482 | 85.204 | -11.722 | 0.86242 |
| AA, paired | 83.215 | 85.204 | -1.989 | 0.97666 |
| JTs, all flops | 21.160 | 57.528 | -36.368 | 0.36782 |
| JTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 21.591 | 57.528 | -35.937 | 0.37531 |
| JTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 14.148 | 57.528 | -43.380 | 0.24593 |
| JTs, two-tone | 23.147 | 57.528 | -34.381 | 0.40236 |
| JTs, monotone | 26.518 | 57.528 | -31.010 | 0.46096 |
| JTs, paired | 16.785 | 57.528 | -40.743 | 0.29177 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 79.40% for AA with a shared suit and 78.28% without one. AA does better with a shared suit, by 1.12 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AA wins | Ties | JTs wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 79.186 | 0.419 | 20.395 | 79.396 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 78.115 | 0.336 | 21.549 | 78.283 |
How often this matchup comes up
The class pair covers 24 combinations of specific cards in a fixed seat order, 0.0015% of 1,624,350, and 48 (0.0030%) in either order.
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says AA gets $157.68 of it on average and JTs gets $42.32.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 786 outright wins for AA, 210 for JTs, and 4 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Swap the hands and you get JTs with 21.16% against AA with 78.84%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsAh against JdTd already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 24 specific deals of AA against JTs, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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