AA
84.49%
Wins 84.31%, ties 0.37%
QTo
15.51%
Wins 15.32%, ties 0.37%
AA against QTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 84.307 | 0.369 | 15.324 | 84.492 |
| QTo | 15.324 | 0.369 | 84.307 | 15.508 |
The matchup pits a pocket pair against an offsuit hand. Here a pair faces two cards that are both smaller, so the other hand needs to pair up and still be behind.
This is one of the lopsided matchups: QTo wins only 15.32% of the boards outright. Ties are 0.37% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
By strength against a random hand, AA holds place 1 of 169 and QTo holds place 47.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 103,939,000 | 455,000 | 18,892,000 |
| QTo | 18,892,000 | 455,000 | 103,939,000 |
The board total is exact, 72 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 5.448 | 1.186 | 6.526 | 0.184 |
| QTo | 0.184 | 6.526 | 1.186 | 5.448 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, AA's equity runs from 79.51% on monotone flops up to 93.12% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AA stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | AA wins | Ties | QTo wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.260 | 81.460 | 0.154 | 18.386 | 81.537 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 92.619 | 1.010 | 6.371 | 93.124 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 83.731 | 0.353 | 15.916 | 83.907 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 78.642 | 1.728 | 19.630 | 79.506 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 87.632 | 0.007 | 12.361 | 87.636 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, AA changes by -0.71 points (baseline 85.20%) and QTo by -41.78 points (baseline 57.29%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA, all flops | 84.492 | 85.204 | -0.712 | 0.99164 |
| AA, rainbow, ten or higher | 81.537 | 85.204 | -3.667 | 0.95696 |
| AA, rainbow, nine or lower | 93.124 | 85.204 | +7.920 | 1.09295 |
| AA, two-tone | 83.907 | 85.204 | -1.297 | 0.98478 |
| AA, monotone | 79.506 | 85.204 | -5.698 | 0.93313 |
| AA, paired | 87.636 | 85.204 | +2.432 | 1.02854 |
| QTo, all flops | 15.508 | 57.291 | -41.783 | 0.27069 |
| QTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 18.463 | 57.291 | -38.828 | 0.32227 |
| QTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 6.876 | 57.291 | -50.415 | 0.12002 |
| QTo, two-tone | 16.093 | 57.291 | -41.198 | 0.28090 |
| QTo, monotone | 20.494 | 57.291 | -36.797 | 0.35772 |
| QTo, paired | 12.364 | 57.291 | -44.927 | 0.21581 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Of the deals of this matchup, 60 share a suit (AA at 84.64%) and 12 do not (83.76%). AA does better with a shared suit, by 0.88 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AA wins | Ties | QTo wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 84.445 | 0.385 | 15.170 | 84.637 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 83.619 | 0.289 | 16.092 | 83.763 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 72 specific-card matchups (0.0044% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 144 once you count the seats both ways (0.0089%).
A worked example
With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $168.98 for AA and $31.02 for QTo; the first side gains $68.98 per all-in and the second gives up $68.98.
Think in thousands: about 843 of 1,000 go to AA, about 153 go to QTo, and about 4 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
QTo versus AA is this same page seen from the other hand: 15.51% for QTo, 84.49% for AA.
Keep exploring
AsAh against QdTc is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 72 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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