AA
81.33%
Wins 81.10%, ties 0.45%
44
18.67%
Wins 18.45%, ties 0.45%
AA against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 81.104 | 0.449 | 18.447 | 81.329 |
| 44 | 18.447 | 0.449 | 81.104 | 18.671 |
Two pocket pairs meet here: AA against 44. Both hands are pairs, so the bigger pair is ahead on every board that does not pair a card below it.
This is one of the lopsided matchups: 44 wins only 18.45% of the boards outright. The tie share is 0.45%: on those boards the pot is chopped and neither hand wins outright.
Place 1 of 169 belongs to AA and place 48 belongs to 44 in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 49,995,000 | 277,000 | 11,371,000 |
| 44 | 11,371,000 | 277,000 | 49,995,000 |
The total is exact: 36 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 4.356 | 1.233 | 5.421 | 0.230 |
| 44 | 0.230 | 5.421 | 1.233 | 4.356 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Paired flops are the best for AA (86.94%); low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) are the worst (67.90%). AA stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AA wins | Ties | 44 wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 83.935 | 0.287 | 15.778 | 84.078 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 67.352 | 1.101 | 31.547 | 67.902 |
| Two-tone | 46.363 | 79.975 | 0.434 | 19.591 | 80.192 |
| Monotone | 5.152 | 74.698 | 2.062 | 23.240 | 75.729 |
| Paired | 17.576 | 86.939 | 0.007 | 13.054 | 86.942 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts AA from 85.20% by -3.87 points and 44 from 57.02% by -38.35 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA, all flops | 81.329 | 85.204 | -3.875 | 0.95452 |
| AA, rainbow, ten or higher | 84.078 | 85.204 | -1.126 | 0.98678 |
| AA, rainbow, nine or lower | 67.902 | 85.204 | -17.302 | 0.79693 |
| AA, two-tone | 80.192 | 85.204 | -5.012 | 0.94118 |
| AA, monotone | 75.729 | 85.204 | -9.475 | 0.88880 |
| AA, paired | 86.942 | 85.204 | +1.738 | 1.02040 |
| 44, all flops | 18.671 | 57.023 | -38.352 | 0.32743 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 15.922 | 57.023 | -41.101 | 0.27922 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 32.098 | 57.023 | -24.925 | 0.56290 |
| 44, two-tone | 19.808 | 57.023 | -37.215 | 0.34737 |
| 44, monotone | 24.271 | 57.023 | -32.752 | 0.42564 |
| 44, paired | 13.058 | 57.023 | -43.965 | 0.22900 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 30 of them the hands share a suit and AA holds 81.46%. In 6 they do not, and it holds 80.66%. AA does better with a shared suit, by 0.80 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AA wins | Ties | 44 wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 30 | 83.33 | 81.231 | 0.462 | 18.307 | 81.462 |
| No shared suit | 6 | 16.67 | 80.470 | 0.382 | 19.148 | 80.661 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, AA against 44 appears in 36 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0022%), and in 72 when the seats are swapped too (0.0044%).
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: AA averages $162.66 back, ahead of its $100 by $62.66, while 44 averages $37.34, short of its $100 by $62.66.
Per 1,000 deals: AA wins about 811, 44 wins about 184, and about 5 end in a split pot.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for 44 against AA, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 18.67% and 81.33%.
Keep exploring
AsAh against 4d4c is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 36 deals of AA against 44 fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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