AA
80.89%
Wins 80.69%, ties 0.40%
QJs
19.11%
Wins 18.91%, ties 0.40%
AA against QJs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 80.689 | 0.398 | 18.913 | 80.888 |
| QJs | 18.913 | 0.398 | 80.689 | 19.112 |
AA, a pocket pair, plays QJs, a suited hand. The pair outranks both of the other hand's cards, which is why the pair is a strong favorite.
AA is a big favorite here before anyone sees a flop. Split pots make up 0.40% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
For context, AA sits at number 1 of 169 starting hands and QJs at number 28 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 33,159,000 | 164,000 | 7,772,000 |
| QJs | 7,772,000 | 164,000 | 33,159,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 4.232 | 1.239 | 5.287 | 0.236 |
| QJs | 0.236 | 5.287 | 1.239 | 4.232 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. AA does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 91.91%, and worst on monotone flops, at 75.10%. AA stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AA wins | Ties | QJs wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.138 | 79.553 | 0.106 | 20.341 | 79.606 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 91.329 | 1.155 | 7.516 | 91.906 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 78.894 | 0.336 | 20.770 | 79.062 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 73.887 | 2.415 | 23.698 | 75.095 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 84.300 | 0.007 | 15.693 | 84.303 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of -4.31 points for AA, from 85.20%, and -41.15 for QJs, from 60.26%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA, all flops | 80.888 | 85.204 | -4.316 | 0.94935 |
| AA, rainbow, ten or higher | 79.606 | 85.204 | -5.598 | 0.93430 |
| AA, rainbow, nine or lower | 91.906 | 85.204 | +6.702 | 1.07866 |
| AA, two-tone | 79.062 | 85.204 | -6.142 | 0.92791 |
| AA, monotone | 75.095 | 85.204 | -10.109 | 0.88136 |
| AA, paired | 84.303 | 85.204 | -0.901 | 0.98943 |
| QJs, all flops | 19.112 | 60.259 | -41.147 | 0.31716 |
| QJs, rainbow, ten or higher | 20.394 | 60.259 | -39.865 | 0.33844 |
| QJs, rainbow, nine or lower | 8.094 | 60.259 | -52.165 | 0.13432 |
| QJs, two-tone | 20.938 | 60.259 | -39.321 | 0.34747 |
| QJs, monotone | 24.905 | 60.259 | -35.354 | 0.41330 |
| QJs, paired | 15.697 | 60.259 | -44.562 | 0.26049 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 12 of them the hands share a suit and AA holds 81.48%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 80.30%. AA does better with a shared suit, by 1.18 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AA wins | Ties | QJs wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 81.256 | 0.439 | 18.305 | 81.476 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 80.121 | 0.357 | 19.522 | 80.299 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 24 specific-card matchups (0.0015% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 48 once you count the seats both ways (0.0030%).
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average AA takes back $161.78 of it, which is $61.78 more than it put in, and QJs takes back $38.22, $61.78 less than it put in.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 807 for AA, 189 for QJs and 4 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: QJs against AA is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so QJs holds 19.11% and AA holds 80.89%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsAh against QdJd already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session