AA
80.48%
Wins 80.29%, ties 0.39%
QTs
19.52%
Wins 19.32%, ties 0.39%
AA against QTs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 80.290 | 0.387 | 19.323 | 80.483 |
| QTs | 19.323 | 0.387 | 80.290 | 19.517 |
AA is a pocket pair and QTs is a suited hand. The pair outranks both of the other hand's cards, which is why the pair is a strong favorite.
A gap this wide means QTs is in trouble before the flop and has few good runouts. About 0.39% of boards chop the pot, which is why equity sits slightly above the win figure for both hands.
The hand ranking puts AA at 1 and QTs at 34 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 32,995,000 | 159,000 | 7,941,000 |
| QTs | 7,941,000 | 159,000 | 32,995,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 4.124 | 1.245 | 5.175 | 0.242 |
| QTs | 0.242 | 5.175 | 1.245 | 4.124 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures AA's equity moves by 15.58 points, from 74.78% on monotone flops to 90.36% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AA stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AA wins | Ties | QTs wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.138 | 79.386 | 0.148 | 20.466 | 79.460 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 89.873 | 0.967 | 9.160 | 90.356 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 78.449 | 0.324 | 21.227 | 78.611 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 73.572 | 2.409 | 24.019 | 74.776 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 84.163 | 0.007 | 15.830 | 84.166 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 85.20% for AA, 59.47% for QTs. Here the change is -4.72 and -39.95 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA, all flops | 80.483 | 85.204 | -4.721 | 0.94459 |
| AA, rainbow, ten or higher | 79.460 | 85.204 | -5.744 | 0.93259 |
| AA, rainbow, nine or lower | 90.356 | 85.204 | +5.152 | 1.06047 |
| AA, two-tone | 78.611 | 85.204 | -6.593 | 0.92262 |
| AA, monotone | 74.776 | 85.204 | -10.428 | 0.87761 |
| AA, paired | 84.166 | 85.204 | -1.038 | 0.98782 |
| QTs, all flops | 19.517 | 59.468 | -39.951 | 0.32819 |
| QTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 20.540 | 59.468 | -38.928 | 0.34540 |
| QTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 9.644 | 59.468 | -49.824 | 0.16217 |
| QTs, two-tone | 21.389 | 59.468 | -38.079 | 0.35967 |
| QTs, monotone | 25.224 | 59.468 | -34.244 | 0.42416 |
| QTs, paired | 15.834 | 59.468 | -43.634 | 0.26626 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 81.07% for AA with a shared suit and 79.90% without one. AA does better with a shared suit, by 1.17 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AA wins | Ties | QTs wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 80.852 | 0.428 | 18.720 | 81.066 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 79.728 | 0.346 | 19.926 | 79.901 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, AA against QTs appears in 24 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0015%), and in 48 when the seats are swapped too (0.0030%).
A worked example
To see what the equity is worth, imagine $100 each in a $200 pot. AA is worth $160.96 on average (+$60.96); QTs is worth $39.04 (-$60.96).
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 803 wins for AA, 193 for QTs and 4 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: QTs against AA is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so QTs holds 19.52% and AA holds 80.48%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
AsAh against QdTd is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 24 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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