AJo vs 22: preflop equity

The exact count puts 22 at 51.95% and AJo at 48.05% when the two hands see all five board cards.

AJo

48.05%

Wins 47.76%, ties 0.59%

22

51.95%

Wins 51.65%, ties 0.59%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

AJo against 22: the numbers

Exact preflop results for AJo against 22, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
AJo47.7580.59051.65248.053
2251.6520.59047.75851.947

AJo and 22 are an offsuit hand and a pocket pair, in that order. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.

This is close to even money, with 22 a little ahead. Ties are 0.59% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.

AJo ranks number 15 of 169 starting hands, and 22 ranks number 87, by equity against a random hand.

Boards behind the percentages: 123,285,888 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
AJo58,879,000727,00063,680,000
2263,680,000727,00058,879,000

Exact total: 72 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.

AJo against 22 read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
AJo0.9252.0941.9361.081
221.0811.9362.0940.925

The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.

Who is ahead on which flops

22 prefers low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), where it holds 77.79%, and likes rainbow flops topped by a ten or better least, where it holds 46.15%. AJo is ahead on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and monotone flops, even though it trails 22 when every flop is counted.

AJo against 22 by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsAJo winsTies22 winsAJo equity
Rainbow, ten or higher24.71753.7500.20146.04953.851
Rainbow, nine or lower6.31421.5501.32377.12722.211
Two-tone46.48547.5210.41152.06847.727
Monotone5.15149.2692.64548.08650.591
Paired17.33348.9430.74650.31149.316

Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.

Compared with a random hand

Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 63.56% for AJo, 50.33% for 22. Here the change is -15.51 and +1.62 points.

AJo and 22 here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
AJo, all flops48.05363.563-15.5100.75599
AJo, rainbow, ten or higher53.85163.563-9.7120.84721
AJo, rainbow, nine or lower22.21163.563-41.3520.34943
AJo, two-tone47.72763.563-15.8360.75086
AJo, monotone50.59163.563-12.9720.79592
AJo, paired49.31663.563-14.2470.77586
22, all flops51.94750.334+1.6131.03205
22, rainbow, ten or higher46.14950.334-4.1850.91686
22, rainbow, nine or lower77.78950.334+27.4551.54546
22, two-tone52.27350.334+1.9391.03852
22, monotone49.40950.334-0.9250.98162
22, paired50.68450.334+0.3501.00695

Does a shared suit matter?

Two kinds of deal exist here. In 60 of them the hands share a suit and 22 holds 51.87%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 52.35%. 22 does better with no shared suit, by 0.48 points.

AJo against 22 by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsAJo winsTies22 winsAJo equity
Share a suit6083.3347.8340.59751.56948.133
No shared suit1216.6747.3740.55452.07247.651

How often this matchup comes up

Counting specific cards, AJo against 22 appears in 72 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0044%), and in 144 when the seats are swapped too (0.0089%).

A worked example

Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. 22 averages $103.90 from the $200, up $3.90; AJo averages $96.10, down $3.90.

A thousand deals look like this: 22 takes 516, AJo takes 478, 6 are ties.

The same matchup from the other side

Read it from the other side: 22 against AJo is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so 22 holds 51.95% and AJo holds 48.05%. That address sends you back to this page.

AsJh against 2d2c is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.

How this was computed

This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 72 ways to deal one AJo and one 22 without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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