AJo
69.19%
Wins 68.27%, ties 1.84%
J9s
30.81%
Wins 29.89%, ties 1.84%
AJo against J9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJo | 68.270 | 1.835 | 29.895 | 69.187 |
| J9s | 29.895 | 1.835 | 68.270 | 30.813 |
AJo, an offsuit hand, plays J9s, a suited hand. The two hands share a rank, and the one with the better other card dominates: it wins most kicker battles when that shared rank hits.
That is a clear edge, 69.19% to 30.81%, but J9s still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. 1.84% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
Place 15 of 169 belongs to AJo and place 55 belongs to J9s in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJo | 42,084,000 | 1,131,000 | 18,428,000 |
| J9s | 18,428,000 | 1,131,000 | 42,084,000 |
Exact total: 36 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJo | 2.245 | 1.465 | 3.345 | 0.445 |
| J9s | 0.445 | 3.345 | 1.465 | 2.245 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, AJo's equity runs from 58.43% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) up to 74.31% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. AJo stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AJo wins | Ties | J9s wins | AJo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.905 | 73.438 | 1.751 | 24.811 | 74.314 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 57.610 | 1.639 | 40.751 | 58.429 |
| Two-tone | 46.527 | 66.421 | 1.602 | 31.977 | 67.222 |
| Monotone | 5.192 | 62.992 | 3.126 | 33.882 | 64.555 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 72.013 | 2.272 | 25.715 | 73.149 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of +5.63 points for AJo, from 63.56%, and -24.85 for J9s, from 55.66%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJo, all flops | 69.187 | 63.563 | +5.624 | 1.08848 |
| AJo, rainbow, ten or higher | 74.314 | 63.563 | +10.751 | 1.16914 |
| AJo, rainbow, nine or lower | 58.429 | 63.563 | -5.134 | 0.91923 |
| AJo, two-tone | 67.222 | 63.563 | +3.659 | 1.05756 |
| AJo, monotone | 64.555 | 63.563 | +0.992 | 1.01561 |
| AJo, paired | 73.149 | 63.563 | +9.586 | 1.15081 |
| J9s, all flops | 30.813 | 55.662 | -24.849 | 0.55357 |
| J9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 25.686 | 55.662 | -29.976 | 0.46146 |
| J9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 41.571 | 55.662 | -14.091 | 0.74685 |
| J9s, two-tone | 32.778 | 55.662 | -22.884 | 0.58888 |
| J9s, monotone | 35.445 | 55.662 | -20.217 | 0.63679 |
| J9s, paired | 26.851 | 55.662 | -28.811 | 0.48239 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give AJo 70.27% when the hands overlap in a suit and 68.65% when they do not. AJo does better with a shared suit, by 1.62 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AJo wins | Ties | J9s wins | AJo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 33.33 | 69.308 | 1.920 | 28.772 | 70.268 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 66.67 | 67.750 | 1.793 | 30.457 | 68.647 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0044% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 72 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. AJo averages $138.38 from the $200, up $38.38; J9s averages $61.62, down $38.38.
Think in thousands: about 683 of 1,000 go to AJo, about 299 go to J9s, and about 18 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for J9s against AJo, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 30.81% and 69.19%.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsJh against Jd9d, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 36 specific AJo against J9s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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