AJs
61.50%
Wins 61.23%, ties 0.54%
54s
38.50%
Wins 38.23%, ties 0.54%
AJs against 54s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs | 61.230 | 0.544 | 38.226 | 61.502 |
| 54s | 38.226 | 0.544 | 61.230 | 38.498 |
Each side holds one of the suited hands: AJs and 54s. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.
The lead is steady rather than large, and the flop still has plenty of say in who wins. Split pots make up 0.54% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
For context, AJs sits at number 11 of 169 starting hands and 54s at number 136 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJs | 16,775,000 | 149,000 | 10,473,000 |
| 54s | 10,473,000 | 149,000 | 16,775,000 |
The total is exact: 16 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs | 1.598 | 1.633 | 2.616 | 0.626 |
| 54s | 0.626 | 2.616 | 1.633 | 1.598 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: AJs holds 68.10% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and 35.23% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). Low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) favor 54s, the hand that is behind overall.
| Flop | Share of flops | AJs wins | Ties | 54s wins | AJs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 68.007 | 0.190 | 31.803 | 68.102 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 34.787 | 0.877 | 64.336 | 35.226 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 60.499 | 0.302 | 39.199 | 60.650 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 57.120 | 3.549 | 39.331 | 58.895 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 64.509 | 0.665 | 34.826 | 64.841 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts AJs from 65.39% by -3.89 points and 54s from 41.45% by -2.95 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs, all flops | 61.502 | 65.393 | -3.891 | 0.94050 |
| AJs, rainbow, ten or higher | 68.102 | 65.393 | +2.709 | 1.04143 |
| AJs, rainbow, nine or lower | 35.226 | 65.393 | -30.167 | 0.53868 |
| AJs, two-tone | 60.650 | 65.393 | -4.743 | 0.92747 |
| AJs, monotone | 58.895 | 65.393 | -6.498 | 0.90063 |
| AJs, paired | 64.841 | 65.393 | -0.552 | 0.99156 |
| 54s, all flops | 38.498 | 41.453 | -2.955 | 0.92871 |
| 54s, rainbow, ten or higher | 31.898 | 41.453 | -9.555 | 0.76950 |
| 54s, rainbow, nine or lower | 64.774 | 41.453 | +23.321 | 1.56259 |
| 54s, two-tone | 39.350 | 41.453 | -2.103 | 0.94927 |
| 54s, monotone | 41.105 | 41.453 | -0.348 | 0.99160 |
| 54s, paired | 35.159 | 41.453 | -6.294 | 0.84817 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Of the deals of this matchup, 4 share a suit (AJs at 63.66%) and 12 do not (60.78%). AJs does better with a shared suit, by 2.88 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AJs wins | Ties | 54s wins | AJs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 63.350 | 0.623 | 36.027 | 63.661 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 60.523 | 0.517 | 38.960 | 60.782 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, AJs against 54s appears in 16 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0010%), and in 32 when the seats are swapped too (0.0020%).
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average AJs takes back $123.00 of it, which is $23.00 more than it put in, and 54s takes back $77.00, $23.00 less than it put in.
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 612 wins for AJs, 382 for 54s and 6 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
The mirror image, 54s against AJs, is 38.50% to 61.50%, and its address redirects to this page.
Keep exploring
Try AsJs against 5h4h in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 16 specific deals of AJs against 54s, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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