AJs
61.84%
Wins 61.59%, ties 0.50%
Q9s
38.16%
Wins 37.91%, ties 0.50%
AJs against Q9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs | 61.588 | 0.496 | 37.916 | 61.836 |
| Q9s | 37.916 | 0.496 | 61.588 | 38.164 |
Two suited hands meet here: AJs against Q9s. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.
A 23.68 point lead is real, and Q9s still takes about 379 of every 1,000 deals outright. A split pot comes up on 0.50% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
By strength against a random hand, AJs holds place 11 of 169 and Q9s holds place 43.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJs | 16,873,000 | 136,000 | 10,388,000 |
| Q9s | 10,388,000 | 136,000 | 16,873,000 |
The total is exact: 16 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs | 1.620 | 1.624 | 2.637 | 0.617 |
| Q9s | 0.617 | 2.637 | 1.624 | 1.620 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and AJs is strongest on paired flops (64.99%) and weakest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (58.13%). AJs stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | AJs wins | Ties | Q9s wins | AJs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 63.025 | 0.113 | 36.862 | 63.082 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 57.679 | 0.899 | 41.422 | 58.129 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 60.835 | 0.258 | 38.907 | 60.964 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 56.962 | 3.407 | 39.631 | 58.666 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 64.677 | 0.616 | 34.707 | 64.985 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, AJs changes by -3.55 points (baseline 65.39%) and Q9s by -19.50 points (baseline 57.66%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs, all flops | 61.836 | 65.393 | -3.557 | 0.94561 |
| AJs, rainbow, ten or higher | 63.082 | 65.393 | -2.311 | 0.96466 |
| AJs, rainbow, nine or lower | 58.129 | 65.393 | -7.264 | 0.88892 |
| AJs, two-tone | 60.964 | 65.393 | -4.429 | 0.93227 |
| AJs, monotone | 58.666 | 65.393 | -6.727 | 0.89713 |
| AJs, paired | 64.985 | 65.393 | -0.408 | 0.99376 |
| Q9s, all flops | 38.164 | 57.664 | -19.500 | 0.66183 |
| Q9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 36.918 | 57.664 | -20.746 | 0.64023 |
| Q9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 41.871 | 57.664 | -15.793 | 0.72612 |
| Q9s, two-tone | 39.036 | 57.664 | -18.628 | 0.67696 |
| Q9s, monotone | 41.334 | 57.664 | -16.330 | 0.71681 |
| Q9s, paired | 35.015 | 57.664 | -22.649 | 0.60722 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 64.18% for AJs with a shared suit and 61.06% without one. AJs does better with a shared suit, by 3.12 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AJs wins | Ties | Q9s wins | AJs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 63.891 | 0.573 | 35.536 | 64.178 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 60.820 | 0.470 | 38.710 | 61.055 |
How often this matchup comes up
The class pair covers 16 combinations of specific cards in a fixed seat order, 0.0010% of 1,624,350, and 32 (0.0020%) in either order.
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. AJs' equity of 61.84% is worth $123.68, a $23.68 edge, and Q9s' 38.16% is worth $76.32, which is $23.68 under its stake.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 616 outright wins for AJs, 379 for Q9s, and 5 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Q9s versus AJs is this same page seen from the other hand: 38.16% for Q9s, 61.84% for AJs.
Keep exploring
Try AsJs against Qh9h in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 16 specific AJs against Q9s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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