AKs
62.60%
Wins 62.31%, ties 0.57%
53s
37.40%
Wins 37.12%, ties 0.57%
AKs against 53s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 62.309 | 0.574 | 37.117 | 62.596 |
| 53s | 37.117 | 0.574 | 62.309 | 37.404 |
AKs meets 53s, and both are suited hands. With no overlap in ranks, every card that pairs one hand is a card that does not pair the other.
The lead is steady rather than large, and the flop still has plenty of say in who wins. Split pots make up 0.57% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
For context, AKs sits at number 8 of 169 starting hands and 53s at number 146 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 17,071,000 | 157,000 | 10,169,000 |
| 53s | 10,169,000 | 157,000 | 17,071,000 |
Exact total: 16 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 1.674 | 1.605 | 2.694 | 0.598 |
| 53s | 0.598 | 2.694 | 1.605 | 1.674 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: AKs holds 69.17% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and 37.00% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). On low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) the numbers flip and 53s is the one ahead.
| Flop | Share of flops | AKs wins | Ties | 53s wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 69.076 | 0.194 | 30.730 | 69.173 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 36.459 | 1.081 | 62.460 | 37.000 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 61.560 | 0.335 | 38.105 | 61.727 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 57.920 | 3.571 | 38.509 | 59.705 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 65.522 | 0.661 | 33.817 | 65.853 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 67.05% for AKs, 39.69% for 53s. Here the change is -4.45 and -2.29 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs, all flops | 62.596 | 67.045 | -4.449 | 0.93364 |
| AKs, rainbow, ten or higher | 69.173 | 67.045 | +2.128 | 1.03174 |
| AKs, rainbow, nine or lower | 37.000 | 67.045 | -30.045 | 0.55187 |
| AKs, two-tone | 61.727 | 67.045 | -5.318 | 0.92068 |
| AKs, monotone | 59.705 | 67.045 | -7.340 | 0.89052 |
| AKs, paired | 65.853 | 67.045 | -1.192 | 0.98222 |
| 53s, all flops | 37.404 | 39.693 | -2.289 | 0.94233 |
| 53s, rainbow, ten or higher | 30.827 | 39.693 | -8.866 | 0.77664 |
| 53s, rainbow, nine or lower | 63.000 | 39.693 | +23.307 | 1.58718 |
| 53s, two-tone | 38.273 | 39.693 | -1.420 | 0.96423 |
| 53s, monotone | 40.295 | 39.693 | +0.602 | 1.01517 |
| 53s, paired | 34.147 | 39.693 | -5.546 | 0.86028 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give AKs 64.89% when the hands overlap in a suit and 61.83% when they do not. AKs does better with a shared suit, by 3.06 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AKs wins | Ties | 53s wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 64.563 | 0.654 | 34.783 | 64.890 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 61.558 | 0.547 | 37.895 | 61.831 |
How often this matchup comes up
AKs against 53s is made up of 16 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0010% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 32 counting both seat orders, 0.0020%.
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says AKs gets $125.20 of it on average and 53s gets $74.80.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 623 for AKs, 371 for 53s and 6 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
One page covers both views. From 53s' side the equity is 37.40%, and from AKs' side it is 62.60%.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsKs against 5h3h, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 16 specific deals of AKs against 53s, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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