AKs
61.34%
Wins 61.06%, ties 0.56%
54s
38.66%
Wins 38.38%, ties 0.56%
AKs against 54s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 61.056 | 0.564 | 38.380 | 61.338 |
| 54s | 38.380 | 0.564 | 61.056 | 38.662 |
Both hands are suited hands: AKs and 54s. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.
A 22.68 point lead is real, and 54s still takes about 384 of every 1,000 deals outright. Ties are 0.56% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, AKs is number 8 of the 169 starting hands and 54s is number 136.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 16,727,000 | 155,000 | 10,515,000 |
| 54s | 10,515,000 | 155,000 | 16,727,000 |
16 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 1.587 | 1.638 | 2.606 | 0.630 |
| 54s | 0.630 | 2.606 | 1.638 | 1.587 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, AKs' equity runs from 34.91% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) up to 67.91% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. The lead reverses on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower): there 54s is the favorite even though AKs is ahead overall.
| Flop | Share of flops | AKs wins | Ties | 54s wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 67.811 | 0.194 | 31.995 | 67.908 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 34.402 | 1.015 | 64.583 | 34.909 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 60.297 | 0.325 | 39.378 | 60.460 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 56.976 | 3.559 | 39.465 | 58.756 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 64.517 | 0.657 | 34.826 | 64.845 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
A random hand would give AKs 67.05% and 54s 41.45%. Against each other the change is -5.71 points for AKs and -2.79 for 54s.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs, all flops | 61.338 | 67.045 | -5.707 | 0.91488 |
| AKs, rainbow, ten or higher | 67.908 | 67.045 | +0.863 | 1.01287 |
| AKs, rainbow, nine or lower | 34.909 | 67.045 | -32.136 | 0.52068 |
| AKs, two-tone | 60.460 | 67.045 | -6.585 | 0.90178 |
| AKs, monotone | 58.756 | 67.045 | -8.289 | 0.87637 |
| AKs, paired | 64.845 | 67.045 | -2.200 | 0.96719 |
| 54s, all flops | 38.662 | 41.453 | -2.791 | 0.93267 |
| 54s, rainbow, ten or higher | 32.092 | 41.453 | -9.361 | 0.77418 |
| 54s, rainbow, nine or lower | 65.091 | 41.453 | +23.638 | 1.57024 |
| 54s, two-tone | 39.540 | 41.453 | -1.913 | 0.95385 |
| 54s, monotone | 41.244 | 41.453 | -0.209 | 0.99496 |
| 54s, paired | 35.155 | 41.453 | -6.298 | 0.84807 |
Does a shared suit matter?
When the hands share a suit, AKs holds 63.48%; when they do not, it holds 60.62%. AKs does better with a shared suit, by 2.86 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AKs wins | Ties | 54s wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 63.159 | 0.644 | 36.197 | 63.481 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 60.355 | 0.537 | 39.108 | 60.624 |
How often this matchup comes up
Exactly 16 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0010% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 32, or 0.0020%.
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. AKs' equity of 61.34% is worth $122.68, a $22.68 edge, and 54s' 38.66% is worth $77.32, which is $22.68 under its stake.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 610 for AKs, 384 for 54s and 6 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for 54s against AKs, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 38.66% and 61.34%.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsKs against 5h4h, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 16 specific deals of AKs against 54s, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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