AKs
70.74%
Wins 68.64%, ties 4.21%
ATs
29.26%
Wins 27.15%, ties 4.21%
AKs against ATs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 68.637 | 4.212 | 27.151 | 70.743 |
| ATs | 27.151 | 4.212 | 68.637 | 29.257 |
Each side holds one of the suited hands: AKs and ATs. Sharing a rank is the signature of a dominated hand, since the weaker hand is usually out-kicked when the shared rank shows up.
That is a clear edge, 70.74% to 29.26%, but ATs still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. Ties are part of the picture: 4.21% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
The hand ranking puts AKs at 8 and ATs at 13 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 14,103,000 | 865,000 | 5,579,000 |
| ATs | 5,579,000 | 865,000 | 14,103,000 |
The total is exact: 12 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 2.418 | 1.457 | 3.683 | 0.414 |
| ATs | 0.414 | 3.683 | 1.457 | 2.418 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: AKs holds 80.50% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and 64.29% on monotone flops. AKs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AKs wins | Ties | ATs wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.138 | 69.410 | 1.972 | 28.618 | 70.396 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 78.021 | 4.957 | 17.022 | 80.499 |
| Two-tone | 46.543 | 68.785 | 2.438 | 28.777 | 70.004 |
| Monotone | 5.215 | 62.054 | 4.477 | 33.469 | 64.292 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 64.981 | 11.550 | 23.469 | 70.756 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, AKs changes by +3.69 points (baseline 67.05%) and ATs by -35.34 points (baseline 64.60%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs, all flops | 70.743 | 67.045 | +3.698 | 1.05516 |
| AKs, rainbow, ten or higher | 70.396 | 67.045 | +3.351 | 1.04998 |
| AKs, rainbow, nine or lower | 80.499 | 67.045 | +13.454 | 1.20067 |
| AKs, two-tone | 70.004 | 67.045 | +2.959 | 1.04413 |
| AKs, monotone | 64.292 | 67.045 | -2.753 | 0.95894 |
| AKs, paired | 70.756 | 67.045 | +3.711 | 1.05535 |
| ATs, all flops | 29.257 | 64.602 | -35.345 | 0.45288 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 29.604 | 64.602 | -34.998 | 0.45825 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 19.501 | 64.602 | -45.101 | 0.30186 |
| ATs, two-tone | 29.996 | 64.602 | -34.606 | 0.46432 |
| ATs, monotone | 35.708 | 64.602 | -28.894 | 0.55274 |
| ATs, paired | 29.244 | 64.602 | -35.358 | 0.45268 |
Does a shared suit matter?
These two classes cannot share a suit in any legal deal, so there is only one row to read: AKs holds 70.74% in every deal of this matchup.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AKs wins | Ties | ATs wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 68.637 | 4.212 | 27.151 | 70.743 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0015% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 24 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: AKs averages $141.48 back, ahead of its $100 by $41.48, while ATs averages $58.52, short of its $100 by $41.48.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 686 for AKs, 272 for ATs and 42 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
ATs against AKs adds nothing new: it is 29.26% for ATs and 70.74% for AKs, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsKs against AhTh, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 12 deals of AKs against ATs fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session