AQo
59.68%
Wins 59.46%, ties 0.44%
T9s
40.32%
Wins 40.10%, ties 0.44%
AQo against T9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQo | 59.463 | 0.442 | 40.095 | 59.684 |
| T9s | 40.095 | 0.442 | 59.463 | 40.316 |
We compare an offsuit hand with a suited hand. Neither hand shares a rank with the other, so this is a contest of high cards, connection and suits.
A 19.36 point lead is real, and T9s still takes about 401 of every 1,000 deals outright. Split pots make up 0.44% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, AQo is number 14 and T9s is number 64.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AQo | 48,873,000 | 363,000 | 32,954,000 |
| T9s | 32,954,000 | 363,000 | 48,873,000 |
The total is exact: 48 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQo | 1.480 | 1.682 | 2.494 | 0.675 |
| T9s | 0.675 | 2.494 | 1.682 | 1.480 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, AQo peaks at 63.48% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and bottoms out at 51.57% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AQo stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | AQo wins | Ties | T9s wins | AQo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.988 | 63.409 | 0.146 | 36.445 | 63.482 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 51.181 | 0.770 | 48.049 | 51.566 |
| Two-tone | 46.667 | 57.917 | 0.265 | 41.818 | 58.049 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 56.846 | 2.369 | 40.785 | 58.030 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 62.357 | 0.620 | 37.023 | 62.667 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, AQo changes by -4.75 points (baseline 64.43%) and T9s by -13.71 points (baseline 54.03%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQo, all flops | 59.684 | 64.432 | -4.748 | 0.92631 |
| AQo, rainbow, ten or higher | 63.482 | 64.432 | -0.950 | 0.98526 |
| AQo, rainbow, nine or lower | 51.566 | 64.432 | -12.866 | 0.80032 |
| AQo, two-tone | 58.049 | 64.432 | -6.383 | 0.90093 |
| AQo, monotone | 58.030 | 64.432 | -6.402 | 0.90064 |
| AQo, paired | 62.667 | 64.432 | -1.765 | 0.97261 |
| T9s, all flops | 40.316 | 54.028 | -13.712 | 0.74621 |
| T9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 36.518 | 54.028 | -17.510 | 0.67591 |
| T9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 48.434 | 54.028 | -5.594 | 0.89646 |
| T9s, two-tone | 41.951 | 54.028 | -12.077 | 0.77647 |
| T9s, monotone | 41.970 | 54.028 | -12.058 | 0.77682 |
| T9s, paired | 37.333 | 54.028 | -16.695 | 0.69099 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 24 of them the hands share a suit and AQo holds 60.35%. In 24 they do not, and it holds 59.02%. AQo does better with a shared suit, by 1.33 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AQo wins | Ties | T9s wins | AQo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 24 | 50.00 | 60.111 | 0.483 | 39.406 | 60.352 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 50.00 | 58.815 | 0.402 | 40.783 | 59.016 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, AQo against T9s appears in 48 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0030%), and in 96 when the seats are swapped too (0.0059%).
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says AQo gets $119.36 of it on average and T9s gets $80.64.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 595 outright wins for AQo, 401 for T9s, and 4 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
T9s versus AQo is this same page seen from the other hand: 40.32% for T9s, 59.68% for AQo.
Keep exploring
AsQh against Td9d is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 48 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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