AQs
61.46%
Wins 61.21%, ties 0.51%
KTs
38.54%
Wins 38.28%, ties 0.51%
AQs against KTs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 61.206 | 0.514 | 38.280 | 61.463 |
| KTs | 38.280 | 0.514 | 61.206 | 38.537 |
Here suited hands face each other, AQs on one side and KTs on the other. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.
That is a modest edge, the kind that shows up over many hands and is easy to miss in one. The tie share is 0.51%: on those boards the pot is chopped and neither hand wins outright.
The hand ranking puts AQs at 10 and KTs at 22 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 16,769,000 | 141,000 | 10,488,000 |
| KTs | 10,488,000 | 141,000 | 16,769,000 |
The total is exact: 16 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 1.595 | 1.634 | 2.612 | 0.627 |
| KTs | 0.627 | 2.612 | 1.634 | 1.595 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, AQs peaks at 73.31% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 57.53% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. AQs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AQs wins | Ties | KTs wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.138 | 57.476 | 0.108 | 42.416 | 57.530 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 72.833 | 0.960 | 26.207 | 73.313 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 60.418 | 0.280 | 39.302 | 60.558 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 56.644 | 3.417 | 39.939 | 58.353 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 64.533 | 0.604 | 34.863 | 64.835 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, AQs changes by -4.75 points (baseline 66.21%) and KTs by -23.25 points (baseline 61.79%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs, all flops | 61.463 | 66.209 | -4.746 | 0.92832 |
| AQs, rainbow, ten or higher | 57.530 | 66.209 | -8.679 | 0.86892 |
| AQs, rainbow, nine or lower | 73.313 | 66.209 | +7.104 | 1.10730 |
| AQs, two-tone | 60.558 | 66.209 | -5.651 | 0.91465 |
| AQs, monotone | 58.353 | 66.209 | -7.856 | 0.88135 |
| AQs, paired | 64.835 | 66.209 | -1.374 | 0.97925 |
| KTs, all flops | 38.537 | 61.789 | -23.252 | 0.62369 |
| KTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 42.470 | 61.789 | -19.319 | 0.68734 |
| KTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 26.687 | 61.789 | -35.102 | 0.43191 |
| KTs, two-tone | 39.442 | 61.789 | -22.347 | 0.63833 |
| KTs, monotone | 41.647 | 61.789 | -20.142 | 0.67402 |
| KTs, paired | 35.165 | 61.789 | -26.624 | 0.56911 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give AQs 63.77% when the hands overlap in a suit and 60.69% when they do not. AQs does better with a shared suit, by 3.08 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AQs wins | Ties | KTs wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 63.473 | 0.593 | 35.934 | 63.770 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 60.450 | 0.488 | 39.062 | 60.694 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0020% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 32 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. AQs averages $122.92 from the $200, up $22.92; KTs averages $77.08, down $22.92.
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 612 wins for AQs, 383 for KTs and 5 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
KTs versus AQs is this same page seen from the other hand: 38.54% for KTs, 61.46% for AQs.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsQs against KhTh already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 16 specific deals of AQs against KTs, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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