ATo vs QJo: preflop equity

Averaged over every possible board, ATo is ahead of QJo by 17.50 points of equity, 58.75% to 41.25%.

ATo

58.75%

Wins 58.53%, ties 0.44%

QJo

41.25%

Wins 41.03%, ties 0.44%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

ATo against QJo: the numbers

Exact preflop results for ATo against QJo, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
ATo58.5310.43741.03258.749
QJo41.0320.43758.53141.251

ATo meets QJo, and both are offsuit hands. Neither hand shares a rank with the other, so this is a contest of high cards, connection and suits.

ATo is ahead, but QJo is far from dead: it takes 410 of every 1,000 deals outright. 0.44% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.

ATo ranks number 19 of 169 starting hands, and QJo ranks number 39, by equity against a random hand.

Boards behind the percentages: 246,571,776 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
ATo144,321,0001,078,000101,173,000
QJo101,173,0001,078,000144,321,000

The total is exact: 144 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.

ATo against QJo read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
ATo1.4241.7082.4370.702
QJo0.7022.4371.7081.424

In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.

Who is ahead on which flops

Split by what the flop looks like, ATo peaks at 74.88% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 52.22% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. ATo stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.

ATo against QJo by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsATo winsTiesQJo winsATo equity
Rainbow, ten or higher23.38152.1580.11547.72752.216
Rainbow, nine or lower7.77174.4050.95224.64374.881
Two-tone46.60657.5090.31042.18157.664
Monotone5.15155.0861.69643.21855.934
Paired17.09163.8530.61235.53564.159

Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.

Compared with a random hand

The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of -3.97 points for ATo, from 62.72%, and -16.89 for QJo, from 58.14%.

ATo and QJo here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
ATo, all flops58.74962.722-3.9730.93666
ATo, rainbow, ten or higher52.21662.722-10.5060.83250
ATo, rainbow, nine or lower74.88162.722+12.1591.19386
ATo, two-tone57.66462.722-5.0580.91936
ATo, monotone55.93462.722-6.7880.89178
ATo, paired64.15962.722+1.4371.02291
QJo, all flops41.25158.135-16.8840.70957
QJo, rainbow, ten or higher47.78458.135-10.3510.82195
QJo, rainbow, nine or lower25.11958.135-33.0160.43208
QJo, two-tone42.33658.135-15.7990.72824
QJo, monotone44.06658.135-14.0690.75799
QJo, paired35.84158.135-22.2940.61651

Does a shared suit matter?

The suit split reads 58.76% for ATo with a shared suit and 58.68% without one. The two rows differ by only 0.08 points, so suits barely change this matchup.

ATo against QJo by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsATo winsTiesQJo winsATo equity
Share a suit12083.3358.5360.45341.01158.763
No shared suit2416.6758.5020.35841.14058.681

How often this matchup comes up

Counting specific cards, ATo against QJo appears in 144 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0089%), and in 288 when the seats are swapped too (0.0177%).

A worked example

With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $117.50 for ATo and $82.50 for QJo; the first side gains $17.50 per all-in and the second gives up $17.50.

Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 585 wins for ATo, 410 for QJo and 5 chopped pots.

The same matchup from the other side

If you came looking for QJo against ATo, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 41.25% and 58.75%.

AsTh against QdJc is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.

How this was computed

Method: exact enumeration. The 144 specific deals are grouped by suit pattern, each is run against all 1,712,304 boards, and both seven-card hands are scored. Equity adds half of every tie, and flop textures are tallied over the ten flops inside each board.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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