ATs
50.17%
Wins 49.89%, ties 0.55%
33
49.83%
Wins 49.56%, ties 0.55%
ATs against 33: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 49.893 | 0.552 | 49.555 | 50.169 |
| 33 | 49.555 | 0.552 | 49.893 | 49.831 |
One side is a suited hand, the other is a pocket pair. This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
That is a slim edge: neither hand is far ahead. A split pot comes up on 0.55% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, ATs is number 13 and 33 is number 66.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 20,504,000 | 227,000 | 20,365,000 |
| 33 | 20,365,000 | 227,000 | 20,504,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 1.007 | 2.004 | 2.018 | 0.993 |
| 33 | 0.993 | 2.018 | 2.004 | 1.007 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, ATs peaks at 55.08% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and bottoms out at 25.55% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). 33 is ahead on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and paired flops, even though it trails ATs when every flop is counted.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | 33 wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 54.958 | 0.235 | 44.807 | 55.075 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 25.116 | 0.864 | 74.020 | 25.548 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 51.011 | 0.336 | 48.653 | 51.179 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 48.497 | 3.179 | 48.324 | 50.086 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 49.152 | 0.677 | 50.171 | 49.490 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of -14.43 points for ATs, from 64.60%, and -3.86 for 33, from 53.69%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 50.169 | 64.602 | -14.433 | 0.77659 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 55.075 | 64.602 | -9.527 | 0.85253 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 25.548 | 64.602 | -39.054 | 0.39547 |
| ATs, two-tone | 51.179 | 64.602 | -13.423 | 0.79222 |
| ATs, monotone | 50.086 | 64.602 | -14.516 | 0.77530 |
| ATs, paired | 49.490 | 64.602 | -15.112 | 0.76608 |
| 33, all flops | 49.831 | 53.693 | -3.862 | 0.92807 |
| 33, rainbow, ten or higher | 44.925 | 53.693 | -8.768 | 0.83670 |
| 33, rainbow, nine or lower | 74.452 | 53.693 | +20.759 | 1.38662 |
| 33, two-tone | 48.821 | 53.693 | -4.872 | 0.90926 |
| 33, monotone | 49.914 | 53.693 | -3.779 | 0.92962 |
| 33, paired | 50.510 | 53.693 | -3.183 | 0.94072 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give ATs 49.99% when the hands overlap in a suit and 50.35% when they do not. ATs does better with no shared suit, by 0.36 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | 33 wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 49.702 | 0.582 | 49.716 | 49.993 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 50.085 | 0.522 | 49.393 | 50.346 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 24 specific-card matchups (0.0015% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 48 once you count the seats both ways (0.0030%).
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average ATs takes back $100.34 of it, which is $0.34 more than it put in, and 33 takes back $99.66, $0.34 less than it put in.
Think in thousands: about 499 of 1,000 go to ATs, about 496 go to 33, and about 5 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: 33 against ATs is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so 33 holds 49.83% and ATs holds 50.17%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
Try AsTs against 3h3d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
The page is built from a full enumeration: 1,712,304 boards, every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, both seven-card hands evaluated. A tie is worth half a win to each hand, and a board is tallied under each of its ten possible flops for the texture rows.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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