ATs
49.55%
Wins 49.30%, ties 0.50%
44
50.45%
Wins 50.20%, ties 0.50%
ATs against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 49.303 | 0.495 | 50.202 | 49.550 |
| 44 | 50.202 | 0.495 | 49.303 | 50.450 |
ATs, a suited hand, plays 44, a pocket pair. This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
This is close to even money, with 44 a little ahead. Ties are part of the picture: 0.50% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, ATs is number 13 and 44 is number 48.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 20,261,000 | 203,000 | 20,631,000 |
| 44 | 20,631,000 | 203,000 | 20,261,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 0.982 | 2.028 | 1.992 | 1.018 |
| 44 | 1.018 | 1.992 | 2.028 | 0.982 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, 44 peaks at 75.24% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 45.20% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. The overall edge for 44 hides rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and two-tone flops, where ATs comes out in front.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | 44 wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 54.683 | 0.235 | 45.082 | 54.801 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 24.418 | 0.694 | 74.888 | 24.765 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 50.667 | 0.306 | 49.027 | 50.820 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 48.220 | 2.811 | 48.969 | 49.626 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 47.393 | 0.605 | 52.002 | 47.695 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, ATs changes by -15.05 points (baseline 64.60%) and 44 by -6.57 points (baseline 57.02%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 49.550 | 64.602 | -15.052 | 0.76700 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 54.801 | 64.602 | -9.801 | 0.84829 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 24.765 | 64.602 | -39.837 | 0.38335 |
| ATs, two-tone | 50.820 | 64.602 | -13.782 | 0.78666 |
| ATs, monotone | 49.626 | 64.602 | -14.976 | 0.76818 |
| ATs, paired | 47.695 | 64.602 | -16.907 | 0.73829 |
| 44, all flops | 50.450 | 57.023 | -6.573 | 0.88473 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 45.199 | 57.023 | -11.824 | 0.79265 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 75.235 | 57.023 | +18.212 | 1.31938 |
| 44, two-tone | 49.180 | 57.023 | -7.843 | 0.86246 |
| 44, monotone | 50.374 | 57.023 | -6.649 | 0.88340 |
| 44, paired | 52.305 | 57.023 | -4.718 | 0.91726 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Of the deals of this matchup, 12 share a suit (44 at 50.63%) and 12 do not (50.28%). 44 does better with a shared suit, by 0.35 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | 44 wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 49.109 | 0.533 | 50.358 | 49.375 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 49.496 | 0.458 | 50.046 | 49.725 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 24 are ATs in one seat and 44 in the other (0.0015%); with the seats swapped too, 48 (0.0030%).
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average 44 takes back $100.90 of it, which is $0.90 more than it put in, and ATs takes back $99.10, $0.90 less than it put in.
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 502 wins for 44, 493 for ATs and 5 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
One page covers both views. From 44's side the equity is 50.45%, and from ATs' side it is 49.55%.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsTs against 4h4d, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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