ATs
61.02%
Wins 60.78%, ties 0.48%
J9s
38.98%
Wins 38.74%, ties 0.48%
ATs against J9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 60.779 | 0.482 | 38.739 | 61.020 |
| J9s | 38.739 | 0.482 | 60.779 | 38.980 |
Here suited hands face each other, ATs on one side and J9s on the other. With no overlap in ranks, every card that pairs one hand is a card that does not pair the other.
That is a modest edge, the kind that shows up over many hands and is easy to miss in one. The tie share is 0.48%: on those boards the pot is chopped and neither hand wins outright.
Among the 169 starting hands, ATs is number 13 and J9s is number 55 by strength against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 16,652,000 | 132,000 | 10,613,000 |
| J9s | 10,613,000 | 132,000 | 16,652,000 |
16 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 1.565 | 1.645 | 2.581 | 0.639 |
| J9s | 0.639 | 2.581 | 1.645 | 1.565 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. ATs does best on paired flops, at 64.45%, and worst on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 57.96%. ATs stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | J9s wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 61.850 | 0.146 | 38.004 | 61.923 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 57.614 | 0.689 | 41.697 | 57.958 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 59.991 | 0.241 | 39.768 | 60.111 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 56.271 | 3.400 | 40.329 | 57.971 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 64.133 | 0.624 | 35.243 | 64.445 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of -3.58 points for ATs, from 64.60%, and -16.68 for J9s, from 55.66%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 61.020 | 64.602 | -3.582 | 0.94455 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 61.923 | 64.602 | -2.679 | 0.95853 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 57.958 | 64.602 | -6.644 | 0.89715 |
| ATs, two-tone | 60.111 | 64.602 | -4.491 | 0.93048 |
| ATs, monotone | 57.971 | 64.602 | -6.631 | 0.89736 |
| ATs, paired | 64.445 | 64.602 | -0.157 | 0.99757 |
| J9s, all flops | 38.980 | 55.662 | -16.682 | 0.70030 |
| J9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 38.077 | 55.662 | -17.585 | 0.68408 |
| J9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 42.042 | 55.662 | -13.620 | 0.75531 |
| J9s, two-tone | 39.889 | 55.662 | -15.773 | 0.71663 |
| J9s, monotone | 42.029 | 55.662 | -13.633 | 0.75508 |
| J9s, paired | 35.555 | 55.662 | -20.107 | 0.63877 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give ATs 63.29% when the hands overlap in a suit and 60.27% when they do not. ATs does better with a shared suit, by 3.02 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | J9s wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 63.007 | 0.557 | 36.436 | 63.286 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 60.036 | 0.457 | 39.507 | 60.265 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, ATs against J9s appears in 16 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0010%), and in 32 when the seats are swapped too (0.0020%).
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, ATs' average share is $122.04 (a gain of $22.04) and J9s' is $77.96 (a loss of $22.04).
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 608 for ATs, 387 for J9s and 5 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for J9s against ATs, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 38.98% and 61.02%.
Keep exploring
Try AsTs against Jh9h in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
The page is built from a full enumeration: 1,712,304 boards, every suit pattern of the 16 specific deals, both seven-card hands evaluated. A tie is worth half a win to each hand, and a board is tallied under each of its ten possible flops for the texture rows.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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