ATs
69.16%
Wins 68.12%, ties 2.07%
T9s
30.84%
Wins 29.81%, ties 2.07%
ATs against T9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 68.120 | 2.072 | 29.808 | 69.156 |
| T9s | 29.808 | 2.072 | 68.120 | 30.844 |
Here suited hands face each other, ATs on one side and T9s on the other. Because the hands share one rank, the one with the higher kicker is ahead when that rank pairs and the other hand is mostly drawing.
That is a clear edge, 69.16% to 30.84%, but T9s still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. Ties are part of the picture: 2.07% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
For context, ATs sits at number 13 of 169 starting hands and T9s at number 64 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 13,997,000 | 426,000 | 6,125,000 |
| T9s | 6,125,000 | 426,000 | 13,997,000 |
The total is exact: 12 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 2.242 | 1.468 | 3.355 | 0.446 |
| T9s | 0.446 | 3.355 | 1.468 | 2.242 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
ATs prefers rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, where it holds 74.03%, and likes low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) least, where it holds 57.05%. ATs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | T9s wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 73.127 | 1.811 | 25.062 | 74.033 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 55.687 | 2.727 | 41.586 | 57.050 |
| Two-tone | 46.543 | 66.817 | 1.768 | 31.415 | 67.701 |
| Monotone | 5.215 | 60.639 | 4.200 | 35.161 | 62.739 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 72.027 | 2.341 | 25.632 | 73.197 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts ATs from 64.60% by +4.56 points and T9s from 54.03% by -23.19 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 69.156 | 64.602 | +4.554 | 1.07049 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 74.033 | 64.602 | +9.431 | 1.14599 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 57.050 | 64.602 | -7.552 | 0.88310 |
| ATs, two-tone | 67.701 | 64.602 | +3.099 | 1.04797 |
| ATs, monotone | 62.739 | 64.602 | -1.863 | 0.97116 |
| ATs, paired | 73.197 | 64.602 | +8.595 | 1.13305 |
| T9s, all flops | 30.844 | 54.028 | -23.184 | 0.57089 |
| T9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 25.967 | 54.028 | -28.061 | 0.48062 |
| T9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 42.950 | 54.028 | -11.078 | 0.79496 |
| T9s, two-tone | 32.299 | 54.028 | -21.729 | 0.59782 |
| T9s, monotone | 37.261 | 54.028 | -16.767 | 0.68966 |
| T9s, paired | 26.803 | 54.028 | -27.225 | 0.49609 |
Does a shared suit matter?
A shared suit is impossible for this matchup, so ATs' 69.16% is the answer for every suit pattern.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | T9s wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 68.120 | 2.072 | 29.808 | 69.156 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, ATs against T9s appears in 12 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0007%), and in 24 when the seats are swapped too (0.0015%).
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. ATs averages $138.32 from the $200, up $38.32; T9s averages $61.68, down $38.32.
A thousand deals look like this: ATs takes 681, T9s takes 298, 21 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
The mirror image, T9s against ATs, is 30.84% to 69.16%, and its address redirects to this page.
Keep exploring
Try AsTs against Th9h in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 12 specific deals of ATs against T9s, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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