ATs
61.89%
Wins 61.62%, ties 0.55%
54s
38.11%
Wins 37.83%, ties 0.55%
ATs against 54s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 61.616 | 0.545 | 37.839 | 61.888 |
| 54s | 37.839 | 0.545 | 61.616 | 38.112 |
Two suited hands meet here: ATs against 54s. Neither hand shares a rank with the other, so this is a contest of high cards, connection and suits.
A 23.78 point lead is real, and 54s still takes about 378 of every 1,000 deals outright. Ties are 0.55% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, ATs is number 13 of the 169 starting hands and 54s is number 136.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 16,881,000 | 149,000 | 10,367,000 |
| 54s | 10,367,000 | 149,000 | 16,881,000 |
The total is exact: 16 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 1.624 | 1.623 | 2.643 | 0.616 |
| 54s | 0.616 | 2.643 | 1.623 | 1.624 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: ATs holds 68.26% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and 37.01% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). On low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) the numbers flip and 54s is the one ahead.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | 54s wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 68.146 | 0.227 | 31.627 | 68.259 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 36.649 | 0.730 | 62.621 | 37.014 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 60.921 | 0.302 | 38.777 | 61.072 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 57.418 | 3.548 | 39.034 | 59.192 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 64.638 | 0.670 | 34.692 | 64.973 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts ATs from 64.60% by -2.71 points and 54s from 41.45% by -3.34 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 61.888 | 64.602 | -2.714 | 0.95799 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 68.259 | 64.602 | +3.657 | 1.05661 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 37.014 | 64.602 | -27.588 | 0.57295 |
| ATs, two-tone | 61.072 | 64.602 | -3.530 | 0.94536 |
| ATs, monotone | 59.192 | 64.602 | -5.410 | 0.91626 |
| ATs, paired | 64.973 | 64.602 | +0.371 | 1.00574 |
| 54s, all flops | 38.112 | 41.453 | -3.341 | 0.91940 |
| 54s, rainbow, ten or higher | 31.741 | 41.453 | -9.712 | 0.76571 |
| 54s, rainbow, nine or lower | 62.986 | 41.453 | +21.533 | 1.51946 |
| 54s, two-tone | 38.928 | 41.453 | -2.525 | 0.93909 |
| 54s, monotone | 40.808 | 41.453 | -0.645 | 0.98444 |
| 54s, paired | 35.027 | 41.453 | -6.426 | 0.84498 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, ATs has 64.09%; looking only at deals where they do not, 61.16%. ATs does better with a shared suit, by 2.93 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | 54s wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 63.775 | 0.624 | 35.601 | 64.087 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 60.897 | 0.518 | 38.585 | 61.156 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, ATs against 54s appears in 16 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0010%), and in 32 when the seats are swapped too (0.0020%).
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says ATs gets $123.78 of it on average and 54s gets $76.22.
Run 1,000 deals and the tally comes out near 616 for ATs, 378 for 54s and 6 ties.
The same matchup from the other side
54s versus ATs is this same page seen from the other hand: 38.11% for 54s, 61.89% for ATs.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsTs against 5h4h, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 16 specific deals of ATs against 54s, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session