ATs
62.65%
Wins 62.42%, ties 0.46%
86s
37.35%
Wins 37.12%, ties 0.46%
ATs against 86s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 62.415 | 0.461 | 37.124 | 62.646 |
| 86s | 37.124 | 0.461 | 62.415 | 37.354 |
The matchup is suited hands on both sides, ATs against 86s. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.
The lead is steady rather than large, and the flop still has plenty of say in who wins. Ties are 0.46% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
By strength against a random hand, ATs holds place 13 of 169 and 86s holds place 110.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 17,100,000 | 126,000 | 10,171,000 |
| 86s | 10,171,000 | 126,000 | 17,100,000 |
The board total is exact, 16 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 1.677 | 1.602 | 2.694 | 0.596 |
| 86s | 0.596 | 2.694 | 1.602 | 1.677 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Rainbow flops topped by a ten or better are the best for ATs (69.35%); low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) are the worst (37.33%). The overall edge for ATs hides low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), where 86s comes out in front.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | 86s wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 69.273 | 0.161 | 30.566 | 69.354 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 37.076 | 0.506 | 62.418 | 37.329 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 61.800 | 0.214 | 37.986 | 61.907 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 58.092 | 3.392 | 38.516 | 59.788 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 64.921 | 0.649 | 34.430 | 65.246 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, ATs changes by -1.95 points (baseline 64.60%) and 86s by -8.89 points (baseline 46.24%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 62.646 | 64.602 | -1.956 | 0.96972 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 69.354 | 64.602 | +4.752 | 1.07356 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 37.329 | 64.602 | -27.273 | 0.57783 |
| ATs, two-tone | 61.907 | 64.602 | -2.695 | 0.95828 |
| ATs, monotone | 59.788 | 64.602 | -4.814 | 0.92548 |
| ATs, paired | 65.246 | 64.602 | +0.644 | 1.00997 |
| 86s, all flops | 37.354 | 46.243 | -8.889 | 0.80778 |
| 86s, rainbow, ten or higher | 30.646 | 46.243 | -15.597 | 0.66272 |
| 86s, rainbow, nine or lower | 62.671 | 46.243 | +16.428 | 1.35525 |
| 86s, two-tone | 38.093 | 46.243 | -8.150 | 0.82376 |
| 86s, monotone | 40.212 | 46.243 | -6.031 | 0.86958 |
| 86s, paired | 34.754 | 46.243 | -11.489 | 0.75155 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 64.96% for ATs with a shared suit and 61.88% without one. ATs does better with a shared suit, by 3.08 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | 86s wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 64.688 | 0.535 | 34.777 | 64.955 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 61.657 | 0.437 | 37.906 | 61.876 |
How often this matchup comes up
The class pair covers 16 combinations of specific cards in a fixed seat order, 0.0010% of 1,624,350, and 32 (0.0020%) in either order.
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average ATs takes back $125.30 of it, which is $25.30 more than it put in, and 86s takes back $74.70, $25.30 less than it put in.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 624 outright wins for ATs, 371 for 86s, and 5 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
The mirror image, 86s against ATs, is 37.35% to 62.65%, and its address redirects to this page.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsTs against 8h6h, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 16 specific ATs against 86s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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