ATs vs 75s: preflop equity

Dealt all in against each other, ATs takes 62.93% of the pot on average and 75s takes the other 37.07%.

ATs

62.93%

Wins 62.68%, ties 0.50%

75s

37.07%

Wins 36.82%, ties 0.50%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

ATs against 75s: the numbers

Exact preflop results for ATs against 75s, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
ATs62.6760.50036.82462.926
75s36.8240.50062.67637.074

Here suited hands face each other, ATs on one side and 75s on the other. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.

That is a modest edge, the kind that shows up over many hands and is easy to miss in one. Split pots make up 0.50% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.

Among the 169 starting hands, ATs is number 13 and 75s is number 124 by strength against a random hand.

Boards behind the percentages: 27,396,864 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
ATs17,171,000137,00010,089,000
75s10,089,000137,00017,171,000

Exact total: 16 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.

ATs against 75s read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
ATs1.6971.5962.7160.589
75s0.5892.7161.5961.697

The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.

Who is ahead on which flops

Split by what the flop looks like, ATs peaks at 69.66% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and bottoms out at 37.81% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). The lead reverses on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower): there 75s is the favorite even though ATs is ahead overall.

ATs against 75s by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsATs winsTies75s winsATs equity
Rainbow, ten or higher24.59569.5510.21330.23669.657
Rainbow, nine or lower6.31437.5380.53961.92337.807
Two-tone46.72762.1020.25737.64162.231
Monotone5.27358.3773.43738.18660.096
Paired17.09164.9630.65734.38065.292

Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.

Compared with a random hand

How much does the opponent matter? Compared with its random-hand 64.60%, ATs changes by -1.67 points, and 75s, from 43.68%, by -6.61.

ATs and 75s here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
ATs, all flops62.92664.602-1.6760.97406
ATs, rainbow, ten or higher69.65764.602+5.0551.07825
ATs, rainbow, nine or lower37.80764.602-26.7950.58523
ATs, two-tone62.23164.602-2.3710.96330
ATs, monotone60.09664.602-4.5060.93025
ATs, paired65.29264.602+0.6901.01068
75s, all flops37.07443.676-6.6020.84884
75s, rainbow, ten or higher30.34343.676-13.3330.69473
75s, rainbow, nine or lower62.19343.676+18.5171.42396
75s, two-tone37.76943.676-5.9070.86475
75s, monotone39.90443.676-3.7720.91364
75s, paired34.70843.676-8.9680.79467

Does a shared suit matter?

Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, ATs has 65.23%; looking only at deals where they do not, 62.16%. ATs does better with a shared suit, by 3.07 points.

ATs against 75s by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsATs winsTies75s winsATs equity
Share a suit425.0064.9370.57834.48565.226
No shared suit1275.0061.9220.47437.60462.159

How often this matchup comes up

You will meet this exact matchup 0.0020% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 32 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.

A worked example

Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. ATs' equity of 62.93% is worth $125.86, a $25.86 edge, and 75s' 37.07% is worth $74.14, which is $25.86 under its stake.

Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 627 wins for ATs, 368 for 75s and 5 chopped pots.

The same matchup from the other side

One page covers both views. From 75s' side the equity is 37.07%, and from ATs' side it is 62.93%.

The calculator link fills in AsTs against 7h5h, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.

How this was computed

Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 16 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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