ATs
61.88%
Wins 61.65%, ties 0.47%
98s
38.12%
Wins 37.88%, ties 0.47%
ATs against 98s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 61.651 | 0.465 | 37.884 | 61.883 |
| 98s | 37.884 | 0.465 | 61.651 | 38.117 |
The matchup is suited hands on both sides, ATs against 98s. With no overlap in ranks, every card that pairs one hand is a card that does not pair the other.
The lead is steady rather than large, and the flop still has plenty of say in who wins. 0.47% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, ATs is number 13 of the 169 starting hands and 98s is number 83.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 16,890,000 | 127,000 | 10,379,000 |
| 98s | 10,379,000 | 127,000 | 16,890,000 |
The board total is exact, 16 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 1.624 | 1.622 | 2.640 | 0.616 |
| 98s | 0.616 | 2.640 | 1.622 | 1.624 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Rainbow flops topped by a ten or better are the best for ATs (67.26%); low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) are the worst (41.43%). 98s is ahead on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), even though it trails ATs when every flop is counted.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | 98s wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 67.169 | 0.174 | 32.657 | 67.256 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 41.177 | 0.496 | 58.327 | 41.425 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 60.990 | 0.220 | 38.790 | 61.100 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 57.337 | 3.392 | 39.271 | 59.033 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 64.412 | 0.637 | 34.951 | 64.730 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of -2.72 points for ATs, from 64.60%, and -12.68 for 98s, from 50.80%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 61.883 | 64.602 | -2.719 | 0.95791 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 67.256 | 64.602 | +2.654 | 1.04108 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 41.425 | 64.602 | -23.177 | 0.64123 |
| ATs, two-tone | 61.100 | 64.602 | -3.502 | 0.94579 |
| ATs, monotone | 59.033 | 64.602 | -5.569 | 0.91380 |
| ATs, paired | 64.730 | 64.602 | +0.128 | 1.00198 |
| 98s, all flops | 38.117 | 50.801 | -12.684 | 0.75032 |
| 98s, rainbow, ten or higher | 32.744 | 50.801 | -18.057 | 0.64455 |
| 98s, rainbow, nine or lower | 58.575 | 50.801 | +7.774 | 1.15303 |
| 98s, two-tone | 38.900 | 50.801 | -11.901 | 0.76573 |
| 98s, monotone | 40.967 | 50.801 | -9.834 | 0.80642 |
| 98s, paired | 35.270 | 50.801 | -15.531 | 0.69428 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 4 of them the hands share a suit and ATs holds 64.16%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 61.12%. ATs does better with a shared suit, by 3.04 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | 98s wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 63.892 | 0.538 | 35.570 | 64.161 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 60.904 | 0.440 | 38.656 | 61.124 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 16 are ATs in one seat and 98s in the other (0.0010%); with the seats swapped too, 32 (0.0020%).
A worked example
With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $123.76 for ATs and $76.24 for 98s; the first side gains $23.76 per all-in and the second gives up $23.76.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 616 outright wins for ATs, 379 for 98s, and 5 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
The reversed view, 98s against ATs, shows 38.12% for 98s and 61.88% for ATs. It is the same count, so it redirects here.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsTs against 9h8h, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 16 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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