ATs
30.63%
Wins 27.87%, ties 5.52%
AQo
69.37%
Wins 66.61%, ties 5.52%
ATs against AQo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 27.873 | 5.519 | 66.608 | 30.632 |
| AQo | 66.608 | 5.519 | 27.873 | 69.368 |
ATs is a suited hand and AQo is an offsuit hand. Sharing a rank is the signature of a dominated hand, since the weaker hand is usually out-kicked when the shared rank shows up.
That is a clear edge, 69.37% to 30.63%, but ATs still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. Of every 100 boards, about 5.52 are split pots, and the equity figures already include them.
Among the 169 starting hands, ATs is number 13 and AQo is number 14 by strength against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 17,182,000 | 3,402,000 | 41,059,000 |
| AQo | 41,059,000 | 3,402,000 | 17,182,000 |
Exact total: 36 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 0.442 | 3.588 | 1.501 | 2.265 |
| AQo | 2.265 | 1.501 | 3.588 | 0.442 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) are the best for AQo (80.00%); monotone flops are the worst (64.19%). AQo stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | AQo wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.177 | 28.861 | 3.130 | 68.009 | 30.426 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 17.433 | 5.128 | 77.439 | 19.997 |
| Two-tone | 46.527 | 29.879 | 3.441 | 66.680 | 31.600 |
| Monotone | 5.192 | 33.479 | 4.665 | 61.856 | 35.811 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 24.166 | 14.725 | 61.109 | 31.528 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of -33.97 points for ATs, from 64.60%, and +4.94 for AQo, from 64.43%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 30.632 | 64.602 | -33.970 | 0.47416 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 30.426 | 64.602 | -34.176 | 0.47098 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 19.997 | 64.602 | -44.605 | 0.30954 |
| ATs, two-tone | 31.600 | 64.602 | -33.002 | 0.48915 |
| ATs, monotone | 35.811 | 64.602 | -28.791 | 0.55433 |
| ATs, paired | 31.528 | 64.602 | -33.074 | 0.48803 |
| AQo, all flops | 69.368 | 64.432 | +4.936 | 1.07661 |
| AQo, rainbow, ten or higher | 69.574 | 64.432 | +5.142 | 1.07981 |
| AQo, rainbow, nine or lower | 80.003 | 64.432 | +15.571 | 1.24167 |
| AQo, two-tone | 68.400 | 64.432 | +3.968 | 1.06158 |
| AQo, monotone | 64.189 | 64.432 | -0.243 | 0.99623 |
| AQo, paired | 68.472 | 64.432 | +4.040 | 1.06270 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, AQo has 70.12%; looking only at deals where they do not, 68.99%. AQo does better with a shared suit, by 1.13 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | AQo wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 33.33 | 27.076 | 5.600 | 67.324 | 29.876 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 66.67 | 28.271 | 5.479 | 66.250 | 31.011 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0044% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 72 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says AQo gets $138.74 of it on average and ATs gets $61.26.
A thousand deals look like this: AQo takes 666, ATs takes 279, 55 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
The mirror image, AQo against ATs, is 69.37% to 30.63%, and its address redirects to this page.
Keep exploring
Try AsTs against AhQd in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 36 deals of ATs against AQo fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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