ATs
75.26%
Wins 74.30%, ties 1.93%
KTo
24.74%
Wins 23.77%, ties 1.93%
ATs against KTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 74.301 | 1.925 | 23.774 | 75.263 |
| KTo | 23.774 | 1.925 | 74.301 | 24.737 |
One side is a suited hand, the other is an offsuit hand. The two hands share a rank, and the one with the better other card dominates: it wins most kicker battles when that shared rank hits.
A lead of 50.52 points is large but not decisive: KTo still takes about 238 of every 1,000 deals. The tie share is 1.93%: on those boards the pot is chopped and neither hand wins outright.
By strength against a random hand, ATs holds place 13 of 169 and KTo holds place 33.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 45,801,000 | 1,187,000 | 14,655,000 |
| KTo | 14,655,000 | 1,187,000 | 45,801,000 |
The board total is exact, 36 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 3.043 | 1.346 | 4.206 | 0.329 |
| KTo | 0.329 | 4.206 | 1.346 | 3.043 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. ATs does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 86.28%, and worst on monotone flops, at 67.31%. ATs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | KTo wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.177 | 70.463 | 1.386 | 28.151 | 71.156 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 84.621 | 3.321 | 12.058 | 86.282 |
| Two-tone | 46.527 | 74.236 | 1.713 | 24.051 | 75.093 |
| Monotone | 5.192 | 65.734 | 3.160 | 31.106 | 67.314 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 77.546 | 2.217 | 20.237 | 78.654 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
How much does the opponent matter? Compared with its random-hand 64.60%, ATs changes by +10.66 points, and KTo, from 59.74%, by -35.00.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 75.263 | 64.602 | +10.661 | 1.16503 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 71.156 | 64.602 | +6.554 | 1.10145 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 86.282 | 64.602 | +21.680 | 1.33559 |
| ATs, two-tone | 75.093 | 64.602 | +10.491 | 1.16239 |
| ATs, monotone | 67.314 | 64.602 | +2.712 | 1.04198 |
| ATs, paired | 78.654 | 64.602 | +14.052 | 1.21752 |
| KTo, all flops | 24.737 | 59.739 | -35.002 | 0.41408 |
| KTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 28.844 | 59.739 | -30.895 | 0.48283 |
| KTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 13.718 | 59.739 | -46.021 | 0.22963 |
| KTo, two-tone | 24.907 | 59.739 | -34.832 | 0.41693 |
| KTo, monotone | 32.686 | 59.739 | -27.053 | 0.54715 |
| KTo, paired | 21.346 | 59.739 | -38.393 | 0.35732 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 75.02% for ATs with a shared suit and 75.38% without one. ATs does better with no shared suit, by 0.36 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | KTo wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 33.33 | 74.024 | 2.001 | 23.975 | 75.024 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 66.67 | 74.439 | 1.887 | 23.674 | 75.382 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 36 specific-card matchups (0.0022% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 72 once you count the seats both ways (0.0044%).
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says ATs gets $150.52 of it on average and KTo gets $49.48.
Run 1,000 deals and the tally comes out near 743 for ATs, 238 for KTo and 19 ties.
The same matchup from the other side
KTo versus ATs is this same page seen from the other hand: 24.74% for KTo, 75.26% for ATs.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsTs against KhTd already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 36 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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