ATs
69.75%
Wins 68.86%, ties 1.78%
QTs
30.25%
Wins 29.36%, ties 1.78%
ATs against QTs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 68.860 | 1.782 | 29.358 | 69.751 |
| QTs | 29.358 | 1.782 | 68.860 | 30.249 |
The matchup is suited hands on both sides, ATs against QTs. Sharing a rank is the signature of a dominated hand, since the weaker hand is usually out-kicked when the shared rank shows up.
ATs is the clear favorite, though QTs gets there on roughly one board in 3. Ties are part of the picture: 1.78% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, ATs is number 13 and QTs is number 34.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 14,149,000 | 366,000 | 6,032,000 |
| QTs | 6,032,000 | 366,000 | 14,149,000 |
The total is exact: 12 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 2.306 | 1.452 | 3.406 | 0.434 |
| QTs | 0.434 | 3.406 | 1.452 | 2.306 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: ATs holds 81.37% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and 63.07% on monotone flops. ATs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | QTs wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.138 | 66.746 | 1.361 | 31.893 | 67.426 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 80.047 | 2.640 | 17.313 | 81.367 |
| Two-tone | 46.543 | 67.591 | 1.463 | 30.946 | 68.322 |
| Monotone | 5.215 | 61.091 | 3.958 | 34.951 | 63.070 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 72.412 | 2.163 | 25.425 | 73.494 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of +5.15 points for ATs, from 64.60%, and -29.22 for QTs, from 59.47%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 69.751 | 64.602 | +5.149 | 1.07970 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 67.426 | 64.602 | +2.824 | 1.04371 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 81.367 | 64.602 | +16.765 | 1.25951 |
| ATs, two-tone | 68.322 | 64.602 | +3.720 | 1.05758 |
| ATs, monotone | 63.070 | 64.602 | -1.532 | 0.97629 |
| ATs, paired | 73.494 | 64.602 | +8.892 | 1.13764 |
| QTs, all flops | 30.249 | 59.468 | -29.219 | 0.50866 |
| QTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 32.574 | 59.468 | -26.894 | 0.54776 |
| QTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 18.633 | 59.468 | -40.835 | 0.31333 |
| QTs, two-tone | 31.678 | 59.468 | -27.790 | 0.53269 |
| QTs, monotone | 36.930 | 59.468 | -22.538 | 0.62101 |
| QTs, paired | 26.506 | 59.468 | -32.962 | 0.44572 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suits do not split this matchup, because no legal deal has the hands holding the same suit.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | QTs wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 68.860 | 1.782 | 29.358 | 69.751 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, ATs against QTs appears in 12 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0007%), and in 24 when the seats are swapped too (0.0015%).
A worked example
With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $139.50 for ATs and $60.50 for QTs; the first side gains $39.50 per all-in and the second gives up $39.50.
Think in thousands: about 689 of 1,000 go to ATs, about 293 go to QTs, and about 18 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: QTs against ATs is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so QTs holds 30.25% and ATs holds 69.75%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsTs against QhTh, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 12 deals of ATs against QTs fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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