ATs
62.15%
Wins 61.91%, ties 0.49%
Q9s
37.85%
Wins 37.60%, ties 0.49%
ATs against Q9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 61.906 | 0.488 | 37.606 | 62.150 |
| Q9s | 37.606 | 0.488 | 61.906 | 37.850 |
ATs meets Q9s, and both are suited hands. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.
The lead is steady rather than large, and the flop still has plenty of say in who wins. Split pots make up 0.49% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
By strength against a random hand, ATs holds place 13 of 169 and Q9s holds place 43.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 16,960,000 | 134,000 | 10,303,000 |
| Q9s | 10,303,000 | 134,000 | 16,960,000 |
16 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 1.642 | 1.615 | 2.659 | 0.609 |
| Q9s | 0.609 | 2.659 | 1.615 | 1.642 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. ATs does best on paired flops, at 65.12%, and worst on monotone flops, at 58.90%. ATs stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | Q9s wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.867 | 63.157 | 0.143 | 36.700 | 63.229 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 58.990 | 0.745 | 40.265 | 59.362 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 61.176 | 0.249 | 38.575 | 61.301 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 57.197 | 3.403 | 39.400 | 58.898 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 64.807 | 0.620 | 34.573 | 65.117 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts ATs from 64.60% by -2.45 points and Q9s from 57.66% by -19.81 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 62.150 | 64.602 | -2.452 | 0.96204 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 63.229 | 64.602 | -1.373 | 0.97875 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 59.362 | 64.602 | -5.240 | 0.91889 |
| ATs, two-tone | 61.301 | 64.602 | -3.301 | 0.94890 |
| ATs, monotone | 58.898 | 64.602 | -5.704 | 0.91171 |
| ATs, paired | 65.117 | 64.602 | +0.515 | 1.00797 |
| Q9s, all flops | 37.850 | 57.664 | -19.814 | 0.65639 |
| Q9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 36.771 | 57.664 | -20.893 | 0.63768 |
| Q9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 40.638 | 57.664 | -17.026 | 0.70474 |
| Q9s, two-tone | 38.699 | 57.664 | -18.965 | 0.67111 |
| Q9s, monotone | 41.102 | 57.664 | -16.562 | 0.71278 |
| Q9s, paired | 34.883 | 57.664 | -22.781 | 0.60494 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 4 of them the hands share a suit and ATs holds 64.52%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 61.36%. ATs does better with a shared suit, by 3.16 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | Q9s wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 64.241 | 0.564 | 35.195 | 64.523 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 61.127 | 0.463 | 38.410 | 61.359 |
How often this matchup comes up
How often does it happen? 16 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0010%) are ATs against Q9s, and 32 (0.0020%) if either hand may sit in either seat.
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average ATs takes back $124.30 of it, which is $24.30 more than it put in, and Q9s takes back $75.70, $24.30 less than it put in.
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 619 wins for ATs, 376 for Q9s and 5 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: Q9s against ATs is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so Q9s holds 37.85% and ATs holds 62.15%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsTs against Qh9h already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 16 specific ATs against Q9s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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