J9s
32.20%
Wins 27.00%, ties 10.39%
JTo
67.80%
Wins 62.61%, ties 10.39%
J9s against JTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J9s | 26.999 | 10.391 | 62.610 | 32.195 |
| JTo | 62.610 | 10.391 | 26.999 | 67.805 |
J9s is a suited hand and JTo is an offsuit hand. The two hands share a rank, and the one with the better other card dominates: it wins most kicker battles when that shared rank hits.
JTo is the clear favorite, though J9s gets there on roughly one board in 3. Ties are 10.39% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
Among the 169 starting hands, J9s is number 55 and JTo is number 57 by strength against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| J9s | 16,643,000 | 6,405,000 | 38,595,000 |
| JTo | 38,595,000 | 6,405,000 | 16,643,000 |
36 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J9s | 0.475 | 3.704 | 1.597 | 2.106 |
| JTo | 2.106 | 1.597 | 3.704 | 0.475 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and JTo is strongest on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better (73.00%) and weakest on monotone flops (63.43%). JTo stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | J9s wins | Ties | JTo wins | J9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.905 | 22.361 | 9.287 | 68.352 | 27.004 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 34.117 | 3.092 | 62.791 | 35.663 |
| Two-tone | 46.527 | 28.909 | 7.436 | 63.655 | 32.627 |
| Monotone | 5.192 | 32.684 | 7.774 | 59.542 | 36.571 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 23.675 | 23.596 | 52.729 | 35.473 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 55.66% for J9s, 55.25% for JTo. Here the change is -23.46 and +12.55 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J9s, all flops | 32.195 | 55.662 | -23.467 | 0.57840 |
| J9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 27.004 | 55.662 | -28.658 | 0.48514 |
| J9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 35.663 | 55.662 | -19.999 | 0.64071 |
| J9s, two-tone | 32.627 | 55.662 | -23.035 | 0.58616 |
| J9s, monotone | 36.571 | 55.662 | -19.091 | 0.65702 |
| J9s, paired | 35.473 | 55.662 | -20.189 | 0.63729 |
| JTo, all flops | 67.805 | 55.248 | +12.557 | 1.22728 |
| JTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 72.996 | 55.248 | +17.748 | 1.32124 |
| JTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 64.337 | 55.248 | +9.089 | 1.16451 |
| JTo, two-tone | 67.373 | 55.248 | +12.125 | 1.21946 |
| JTo, monotone | 63.429 | 55.248 | +8.181 | 1.14808 |
| JTo, paired | 64.527 | 55.248 | +9.279 | 1.16795 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common JTo has 68.46% equity, and with none in common it has 67.48%. JTo does better with a shared suit, by 0.98 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | J9s wins | Ties | JTo wins | J9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 33.33 | 26.275 | 10.535 | 63.190 | 31.542 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 66.67 | 27.361 | 10.319 | 62.320 | 32.521 |
How often this matchup comes up
Exactly 36 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0022% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 72, or 0.0044%.
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. JTo's equity of 67.80% is worth $135.60, a $35.60 edge, and J9s' 32.20% is worth $64.40, which is $35.60 under its stake.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 626 outright wins for JTo, 270 for J9s, and 104 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
JTo against J9s adds nothing new: it is 67.80% for JTo and 32.20% for J9s, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in Js9s against JhTd, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 36 specific J9s against JTo deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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