44
49.56%
Wins 49.09%, ties 0.95%
JTo
50.44%
Wins 49.96%, ties 0.95%
44 against JTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 49.087 | 0.946 | 49.967 | 49.560 |
| JTo | 49.967 | 0.946 | 49.087 | 50.440 |
44, a pocket pair, plays JTo, an offsuit hand. A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
JTo leads by less than 1 points of equity, so the result of any one deal is close to a toss-up. Ties are part of the picture: 0.95% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
Among the 169 starting hands, 44 is number 48 and JTo is number 57 by strength against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 60,517,000 | 1,166,000 | 61,602,000 |
| JTo | 61,602,000 | 1,166,000 | 60,517,000 |
Exact total: 72 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.983 | 2.037 | 2.001 | 1.018 |
| JTo | 1.018 | 2.001 | 2.037 | 0.983 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. JTo does best on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, at 56.86%, and worst on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 28.06%. On low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and paired flops the numbers flip and 44 is the one ahead.
| Flop | Share of flops | 44 wins | Ties | JTo wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.717 | 42.879 | 0.531 | 56.590 | 43.144 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 71.631 | 0.624 | 27.745 | 71.943 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 48.579 | 0.537 | 50.884 | 48.847 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 46.329 | 2.206 | 51.465 | 47.432 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 51.911 | 2.378 | 45.711 | 53.100 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Against one random hand instead, 44 holds 57.02% and JTo holds 55.25%. Facing each other changes that by -7.46 points for 44 and -4.81 points for JTo.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44, all flops | 49.560 | 57.023 | -7.463 | 0.86912 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 43.144 | 57.023 | -13.879 | 0.75661 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 71.943 | 57.023 | +14.920 | 1.26165 |
| 44, two-tone | 48.847 | 57.023 | -8.176 | 0.85662 |
| 44, monotone | 47.432 | 57.023 | -9.591 | 0.83180 |
| 44, paired | 53.100 | 57.023 | -3.923 | 0.93120 |
| JTo, all flops | 50.440 | 55.248 | -4.808 | 0.91297 |
| JTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 56.856 | 55.248 | +1.608 | 1.02911 |
| JTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 28.057 | 55.248 | -27.191 | 0.50784 |
| JTo, two-tone | 51.153 | 55.248 | -4.095 | 0.92588 |
| JTo, monotone | 52.568 | 55.248 | -2.680 | 0.95149 |
| JTo, paired | 46.900 | 55.248 | -8.348 | 0.84890 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 50.53% for JTo with a shared suit and 49.98% without one. JTo does better with a shared suit, by 0.55 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 44 wins | Ties | JTo wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 48.988 | 0.959 | 50.053 | 49.467 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 49.583 | 0.880 | 49.537 | 50.023 |
How often this matchup comes up
The class pair covers 72 combinations of specific cards in a fixed seat order, 0.0044% of 1,624,350, and 144 (0.0089%) in either order.
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average JTo takes back $100.88 of it, which is $0.88 more than it put in, and 44 takes back $99.12, $0.88 less than it put in.
Per 1,000 deals: JTo wins about 500, 44 wins about 491, and about 9 end in a split pot.
The same matchup from the other side
JTo against 44 adds nothing new: it is 50.44% for JTo and 49.56% for 44, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
4s4h against JdTc is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
The page is built from a full enumeration: 1,712,304 boards, every suit pattern of the 72 specific deals, both seven-card hands evaluated. A tie is worth half a win to each hand, and a board is tallied under each of its ten possible flops for the texture rows.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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